COVID-19 Update: 4/3/2020

These analytics are all based off of 4/1 data… I’m noticing the groups disseminating the data release it a few hours later every day.

US Update

Above is the top states sorted by the Growth Rate of deaths in their state (inst_rate_of_change). I tend to refer to this as IROC as shorthand. Right now, this is about the most interesting metric to me because it uses deaths normalized by population (thus making it possible to compare apples to apples) and calculates the rate of change of growth. This would be the “steepness” of the curve. When this curve flattens off, it is a sign that the early phase of the outbreak might be nearly over. See image of the Louisiana outbreak below. Louisiana’s death rate of ~0.06 deaths per thousand population is very, very high right now. Not as high as New York’s though (contrary to what the lady on CNN said last night… I hear so many incorrect assertions by the big media talking heads). So this can be considered a very steep curve. The blue curve that I fit to the datapoints is what I use to calculate IROC. Louisiana’s IROC of about .009 is calculated for the 4/1 datapoint. Two days ago, their IROC was about 0.07. So their curve is still accelerating. Orleans Parish alone announced almost 900 new cases yesterday. That’s on a population of around 400,000.

World Update

As you can see above, the largest growth in cases across the world is still Spain, Switzerland, and Italy. Switzerland, however, still has about 1/4 of the deaths (when normalized by the population) of those two. I have discussed this in a previous blog. You can see the numbers for this chart below sorted by Deaths per 1000 people. Austria is also interesting along with Germany and Norway for the extremely low number of deaths in those countries.

Progression of COVID-19

Below is a chart of the top 12 countries (minus the US) by Confirmed Cases. This chart shows the duration of the outbreak from 1/28 to today. Interesting things to note… there is evidence that some of the European countries are decelerating a bit on confirmed cases. This could be for any number of reasons, not just that the outbreak is slowing. But over the last few days, we see the first time that countries like Italy have shown any slowing at all. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Belgium all seem to be flattening off a bit. Spain, the UK, and Turkey show no signs at all of flattening. Keep watching here and I’ll let you know when the curves really indicate slowed growth in cases.

2 Replies to “COVID-19 Update: 4/3/2020”

  1. What about the healed, do you have the numbers by country? Any trend if comparing against the infected? And of those that have died, what are their ages by country?

    1. Thanks! Recoveries just resumed in the datasets again… countries stopped showing them (or they were uploading bogus data) for a while. I think this is some of the most important data, because it lets you see the cycle time of the process. See some of my recent blogs with Cumulative Flow Diagrams. As per the age question, that isn’t being reported in detail, but broadly, the info is coming out of Europe that 95% of deaths are over 60. In the US it seems like that number is 80%.

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