Month: July 2019

The Rain predictor has continued working well through the monsoon season. Most predictions have been a couple of hours off, though. During the last week it has predicted four rain events correctly (including the start of our 2019 Monsoon season) and has missed one (see table below in red). The Green or Red labels align with the actual time it rained at the house.

Note this is rain at my house, not just rain in the Tucson area. So that makes it a bit more challenging. For instance, on 7/30, one could see heavy rain all around the Tucson area at the times the model predicted, but it didn’t rain at my house until about 3 hrs after the last predicted time.

Yesterday afternoon at around 4PM (at my house) our first monsoon rainstorm hit with a vengeance! Streets were flooded for a few hours and the temperatures dropped 40 degrees. My rain predictor (see below) predicted this storm 18 hours beforehand, but estimated a time about 2 hrs earlier. This means that the last two times the neural network has predicted rain at my house, it has been right.

See below for latest weekly chart and rain predictions.

Noticed that my rain predictor popped up a strong prediction for about 18 hrs from now. Last time this happened (2 wks ago) it was about 2 hours off on the prediction. Here’s the week’s data plus the prediction chart.