Where consistent growth meets predictable decline in soccer’s most balanced league


While MLS showed remarkable balance in our league-wide analysis, the individual player stories reveal something even more fascinating: Unlike the English Premier League, MLS creates an environment where both breakthrough and decline follow predictable patterns. Here are the standout developmental trajectories from our data. This follows our broad analysis of EPL and MLS playing time minutes… what can this data point measured over time tell us?
The Development Success Stories: MLS at Its Best
Kevin O’Toole: The Textbook Breakthrough
- Trend: +1,062 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
- Story: From bench player (300 minutes) to full starter (2,400+ minutes). Kevin is 26 and with his first MLS team, NYCFC. He went from 3 appearances in 2022 to 30 in 2024. His consistent increase year-over-year in playing time gives an indicator that one might expect continued development.
- Why it matters: Nearly perfect R² shows MLS’s ability to nurture consistent development over multiple seasons
Daniel Edelman: The Steady Climber
- Trend: +765 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
- Story: Methodical progression from 1,000 to 2,500 minutes. Daniel signed his first pro contract with the NYC Red Bulls at age 18. Now at 22 he has signed a “homegrown player” contract with the Red Bulls and has clearly been growing his game consistently. He may still be below the weeds, but the data would suggest that he will continue to improve and get noticed.
- Why it matters: Represents MLS’s patient approach to player development—no rush, just consistent opportunity growth
Giacomo Vrioni: The Reliable Rise
- Trend: +992 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.025)
- Story: From role player to key contributor with near-perfect linearity. Giacomo is a Albanian player who was brought into the MLS as a Designated Player. Now with CF Montreal, in his three years with New England he went from 7 appearances to 30 and was the Revolution’s Golden Boot winner last year. He’s 27 now, so he’s probably no longer under the radar, but the playing time stats with New England show that his development is right on track.
- Why it matters: Shows how MLS systems allow players to gradually earn larger roles
The 900+ Club: Diego Luna (+944), Kerwin Vargas (+910), Calvin Harris (+672)
- Collective story: Multiple players experiencing similar dramatic upward trajectories
- Why it matters: Demonstrates MLS’s systematic approach to developing talent—these aren’t isolated success stories. Diego Luna, for instance, started with the USL club El Paso Locomotive and at the time of his transfer, was the highest dollar-value transfer to the MLS in history. His progression from MLS Next Pro to Real Salt Lake has been consistent and he’s now seen as one of the more exciting players in MLS. He scored two goals against Guatemala in the Gold Cup for the USMNT as well.
The Predictable Declines: Even Farewells Follow Patterns
Luis Díaz: The Steepest Fall
- Trend: -1,443 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.003)
- Story: From starter to complete benchwarmer with mathematical precision. Luis came to the MLS from Costa Rica for about a million dollars and played for the Columbus Crew during their MLS Cup championship season. His decline may have started with an injury sustained on the Costa Rica national team, but it seems like he never was able to find his place on the Crew or any of the other MLS stops he made.
- Why it matters: Perfect R² shows that even decline in MLS follows predictable patterns rather than chaotic benching
The Veteran Quartet: Marcelo Silva (-1,296), Steve Birnbaum (-1,251), Emanuel Reynoso (-1,243)
- Collective story: Similar decline rates among established players. Silva is an older player (36) who peaked in 2022 in his thirties (he’s a center back, sometimes they peak late) and declined consistently until he played his way out of the MLS. This is a common trajectory.
- Why it matters: Suggests MLS has consistent policies for transitioning aging players
Ben Sweat & Pablo Ruiz: The Supporting Cast Transitions
- Trend: -1,202 and -1,121 minutes per year respectively
- Story: Role players systematically losing opportunities
- Why it matters: Even bench players have predictable career arcs in MLS
What Makes MLS Different from Premier League
Higher Statistical Reliability
MLS players show consistently higher R² values (0.995-1.000) compared to Premier League counterparts, indicating:
- More predictable career trajectories
- Less rotation-induced chaos
- Systematic approach to player development and transition
Balanced Opportunity Structure
Unlike the Premier League’s decline-heavy environment:
- Six rising players with 670+ minute gains per year
- Six declining players with 1,100+ minute losses per year
- Perfect balance reflecting the league’s 50/50 trend distribution
Development-Friendly Patterns
- Rising players: Gradual, sustainable growth over 2-3 seasons
- Declining players: Orderly transitions rather than sudden benchings
- Consistency: Fewer injury-related or tactical disruptions
The Age and Stage Factor
Rising Players Profile:
- Likely younger players earning their first significant opportunities
- Multi-season development curves rather than sudden breakthroughs
- System integration taking time but showing results
Declining Players Profile:
- Veteran players transitioning toward reduced roles
- Orderly succession planning by MLS teams
- Respectful role transitions rather than dramatic benchings
The Broader Message
These individual stories confirm our league-wide analysis: MLS has created a development-friendly ecosystem where:
- Young players get genuine chances to grow consistently
- Veterans experience dignified transitions rather than sudden drops
- Career trajectories follow logical patterns that players can plan around
- Statistical reliability makes both success and decline predictable
Unlike the Premier League’s “survival of the fittest” chaos, MLS demonstrates that constrained economics can actually create better player development environments.
The Takeaway
While Premier League individual trends were notable for being rare exceptions to chaos, MLS trends represent systematic approaches to player development.
The Kevin O’Tooles and Daniel Edelmans aren’t beating impossible odds—they’re benefiting from a league structure designed to nurture talent growth. Similarly, the declining veterans aren’t victims of random rotation—they’re experiencing planned transitions.
This is what balanced opportunity looks like in practice: predictable development curves that allow players to maximize their potential within a sustainable ecosystem.
These contrasting development stories reveal why league structure matters more than prestige for individual career growth.
Other Entries in the Playing Time Series
- Initial Takeaways from the Playing Time study
- Explanation of the Trends Analytics Panel
- Overview of English Premier League Risers and Fallers
- Overview of MLS Risers and Fallers (this entry)