COVID-19 Update: Things are Slowing in the US, picking up Elsewhere

Here’s a quick update on what is happening in the US and around the world. See analysis below the images.

State Data Table, 5/9/2021

A bit over a week ago in my last post, Michigan was leading the US in case rates. Since then, their cases have collapsed and Michigan was replaced at the top by Colorado, then Oregon, then Alabama… This makes me suspect that these outbreaks (they’re all very small compared with the peak in January) are somewhat isolated. Above, the data tells us that the highest acceleration of cases is happening in Alabama but the largest slope (cases per 1000 persons per day) is in Oregon. It’s not surprising to see lots of cases in Oregon as that state has been very lightly touched to date. A similar effect is happening just north of Oregon in Washington. The sixteen states above are the only ones that show a daily increase in the case rate (dIROC_confirmed). The rest of the states are seeing case rates slowing.

Arizona Deaths due to COVID-19 along with moving average of Ratio – 5/9/21

The above chart shows something interesting that I have highlighted. The Arizona ratio of deaths in the over65 demographic to deaths in all other demographics is slowing significantly. What this might mean:

  1. The data is small (deaths are down significantly) and this is a statistical anomaly.
  2. The over 65 demographic — which seems to be getting close to “fully” vaccinated per the AZ DHS data — is being protected by the vaccine from severe responses to COVID. We all suspect that this is the case, but here’s some data showing a pronounced shift since about mid-March.

World Data

Raw Number of New Active Cases and Deaths on 5/8/21

Above you can see the new cases and deaths on 5/8 from the top 17 countries. There’s lots of news about India and the terrible things happening over there as their hospital system gets stressed, but in actuality, on a per capita basis, India, Brazil, and the US are in much better shape than the leading countries in the chart below. India’s 400K cases yesterday represents about .3 cases per 1000 people, which is about half the number of Peru from 5/8.

Number of new cases and deaths (5/8/21) normalized by population