COVID Case Rates in heavy- and low-vaccinated States – 8/5/21

This may not be surprising at all, but the states with the lowest rates of vaccination are seeing case accelerations but the states with the highest rates of vaccinations are only seeing linear case rates. See below.

States with Lowest Vaccination Rates (as of 8/5/21)
States with Highest Vaccination Rates (as of 8/5/21)

I’m not sure what to make of the interesting spread in cases per 1000 across the 8 highest vaccinated states. Perhaps this makes the case that different approaches to state intervention yielded different results. New Mexico, for instance, had some of the more disruptive lockdowns and you can see that they flattened out earlier than New Jersey or Washington. But regardless, you’ll note that only a couple of these states have any case rate increase at all right now. However, the top chart shows states that have tended towards less government intervention and perhaps this is the reason their vaccination rates are low.

By County in AZ

I also see this result by county in Arizona. The highest vaccinated counties are all near the border (Yuma, Pima, Santa Cruz, Cochise) or near large Native reservations (Apache, Navajo, Coconino).

You’ll notice on the table and map below that these counties all have the lowest case rates and accelerations. In the map, the warmer colors represent higher case growth rates and the bubble diameter represents Zip code population. This shows the higher case rates are all in the counties with lower vaccination rates.

AZ State Data Table – 8/5/21
Arizona Zip Code COVID growth since April 2021.

Death Rates

I’m not including any slides on the death rates. They’re still low across the board compared with earlier outbreaks, but the states with lower vaccination rates do have slightly higher slopes, it seems.

Hospitalization (ICU beds)

# of ICU beds in use by COVID patients – 8/5/21 (

It’s hard to know what’s going on with the ICU bed usage rates… You may notice that for about a week the numbers have plateaued. This could be a data collection issue, or it could be that the hospitalization rate for ICU beds has slowed. I have noticed that COVID discharge rates seem very strong, so this might be a testament to hospitals improvements in treating serious COVID cases. I continue to track this metric.

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