Update on the Delta variant Surge – 7/31/21

As always, I’m capturing the state of the COVID pandemic through data. See below for the latest data across the US on the “Delta Surge”.

Current US State Status

State Data Table – 7/31/21

Above is the standard Data Table that I build from the Johns Hopkins COVID data. You might note that the Case Rates (IROC_confirmed) and Case Accelerations (dIROC_confirmed) are increased over the previous two posts here and here. The rate that Lousiana’s case rate is increasing is surprisingly high… perhaps the highest acceleration I’ve seen yet for a whole state. This may be another data point demonstrating how quickly this delta variant spreads.

Hot Spot Counties

Hotspot County Data Table – 7/31
Hotspot County Map – 7/31/21

Above we can see a number of interesting things about the current Delta outbreak. First, the Louisiana Parishes at the top have really high rates and accelerations. This is one of the big reasons the whole state of Louisiana is surging. The top three parishes are all medium sized parishes that sit in between Baton Rouge and the New Orleans area, so perhaps their outbreaks are related.

The case rates and accelerations continue to inch upwards in the previous hotspot areas (Missouri/Arkansas border and Jacksonville, FL, area) but they’re not racing up anywhere near as quickly as Louisiana.

Finally, despite all these new cases, death rates are still extremely low… about 5 to 10 times lower rates of deaths per 1000 persons per day than back in January during the winter outbreak. For instance, Apache County, AZ, had the highest case rate in the state at this time (.728) but had a death rate of .033. Compare to any of the counties in the table above. They all have higher case rates than Apache County during January of 2021 and the highest death rate I see is .0082 in Phelps County, MO.

All I can take away from this is that 1) the Delta Variant is less deadly than the variant spreading in January, 2) our medical system has gotten much better at treating COVID, or 3) the deaths are lagging and we’ll start to see them showing up later. Of course we have the variable of vaccinations present now which could be impacting 1) above by making the virus less deadly in a society of a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated victims.

Hospitalization Status in AZ due to COVID

ICU Hospital Bed Capacity (https://www.azdhs.gov/covid19/data/#hospital-bed-usage) – 7/31/21

Above is the current status from the state of Arizona of hospital beds. The Arizona case numbers are creeping up but are still relatively low (see below). Hospitalization (ICU) due to COVID is increasing, but it hasn’t yet hit the rates that were seen even in April of 2020. The trend here will be a good indicator of how serious this Delta outbreak is.

Arizona State Data Table – 7/31/21

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