See below for the weeks data and a more believable probability chart. Not sure what happened with yesterdays (It might still rain today as predicted, but I doubt it), but I’m working on it.
Now this Rain Probability Chart looks More Believable!
New Feature – Neural Network-based Rain Predictor!
One of my motivators for collecting this data is to figure out how to make predictions using it. I have been running a neural network predictor using this data for a while now with the intent that I could publish rain probability in the future. I have it about ready to show an example. Picking today because the model has made a surprising rain prediction that I don’t understand. (posted on 6/18 at 4PM…)
See graph below to see some of the prediction results. Probability of Rain is predicted for the times referenced.
More on how to design this machine learning workflow.
Tucson Weather – 6/18/2019
Tucson has steadied into its early summer weather pattern. You can see this in the monthly plot below. Lower humidity and (of course!) higher temperatures dominate.
Don’t mind the glitch in the middle, my Raspberry Pi is getting tired and sometimes konks out on me when I go on travel!
Tucson Monsoon Weather – Rain Event – 9/21/2018
Here’s an example of what rain looks like. We had a good solid day of rain a couple of days ago and you can see it clearly on the chart. When the green Humidity line intersects the magenta temperature line, that is a really strong indicator of actual precipitation. Note that the Luminescence plots are much smaller and shorter in the time dimension for the rain day too. This indicates that the light was low and the day was shorter due to clouds.
Of course, we see the dry trends returning. Pressure is rising and humidity seems to be falling now.
Tucson Monsoon Weather – Is the Monsoon Returning? – 9/18/2018
In the first chart below you can see the last full month of data. There was quite a spike in humidity and lightning earlier in the month, but unfortunately it dried up. The daily humidity oscillation amplitude have decreased and the temperatures have increased slightly since that round of storms.
However… looking at the second chart, which focuses on the last week of data, we can see the humidity numbers increasing. The sensor has been detecting small lightning events (they may/may not be real, but we have had cloud cover at times). Are we going to have a return of the monsoon?
Tucson Monsoon Weather – 9/10/18
Here’s a view of the last month of weather. Last week we could see the drying up trend start. It’s possible that this is the start of the end for monsoons.
Tucson Monsoon Weather – 9/4/2018
Lots of weather over the last couple of days! You can see the buildup of the cloud cover, as sampled by the light spectrum measurements starting on 8/31. Humidity gradually increased over that period and pressure dipped slightly. The intersection of the humidity line and the temperature line on 9/2 is a typical indicator of rain. In this case, the rain lasted for around five hours or so. Lots of lightning captured and some of it quite close! All cleared up on 9/3 and we see the humidity drop quickly during the day.
Tucson Monsoon Weather for Sept 01, 2018 – small rainstorms
The system that passed through on September 1 was small but widespread. It brought some rain and lightning. You can see some of it captured here. Humidity stayed low despite the rain, unlike the events from August 23-25. Lightning strikes had smaller intensities too.
Tucson Monsoon Weather 8/6/18
Storms have abated and the humidity has fallen significantly. Slight downtrend on pressure and uptick in temperature. No hope for clouds and storms today, it appears.
