Above is an interesting way to look at the two outbreaks we’ve had in Arizona and the cumulative number of cases (useful because it shows us the case trends).
- Note that the deaths seem to be higher during the summer outbreak than during the current one considering the rate of case growth. During this current outbreak the deaths are so far staying under 50 per day, but back even in the earlier phases of the summer outbreak they were inching up to 100 per day.
- Also, the deaths are just the raw number of deaths and aren’t normalized by the respective populations. What this means is that the red lines represent the total number of deaths over 65 years old (about 13% of the AZ population) and the blue represent everyone else.
- Deaths during the current outbreak have a ratio of 2.95 deaths over 65 to 1 death under 65. During the summer outbreak the death ratio of over 65 to under 65 was 2.31. This is a pretty big difference and indicates to me that the virus might be getting less deadly for society as a whole. If I knew exactly how old the people dying were it would help (if they average 85 that’s much more informative than just knowing they’re over 65). This may indicate that the “Years of Life Lost” due to COVID is decreasing.
- In the chart above, the state had lockdown restrictions in place until May 15, then most counties put mask requirements in place on June 9th. Early October is when most of the second set of restrictions on bars, gyms, and movie theaters were lifted. It doesn’t seem like any of these dates are correlated with anything the virus did. Seems like it has it’s own mind…