The season has less than 20 matches remaining, so I figured it might be a good time to evaluate where the clubs stand regarding the xG ratio, luck, and salary. Refer to past analyses in my soccer analytics category to see previous years.
What I’m curious about is if these measures reveal the likelihood of relegation, for, say, Manchester United or Tottenham. Both of these big, wealthier clubs are having really horrible years. Lets see what the data tells us.
Analysis of the Top of the Standings
One thing that stands out is how Liverpool and Arsenal have by far the highest xG ratios. That means, based on the shots they’re taking and allowing, their play is extremely favorable for wins. Both of these clubs are at the top of the table, so there’s a chance that this ratio is (unsurprisingly) quite correlated with points in the standings. Frequently we see that salary (the blue bars) are the most correlated element to points, but this year we see Man City, Man U, and Chelsea all struggling down the standings but with very high salaries. Nottingham Forest feels like they’re punching way over their weight with one of the lowest salaries in the entire Premier League, though. I notice that their xG ratio is a bit lower than the 3-4 clubs behind them in the standings and their away and home luck factors are both greater than zero. It is interesting to notice that though Nottingham finished quite low in the Premier League standings last year, they happened to have the worst away luck factor in the league. A few breaks going their way in 24-25 and now we see them in contention for a Champion’s League slot!Stay tuned, however, to see if they will settle a few spots lower in the standings based off of their current year’s above average luck factor. Additionally, it would seem that Chelsea could move up if they improve their home luck factor because their xG ratio is third highest in the league.
Analysis of the Bottom of the Standings
Our three teams in relegation positions right now (and also the Wolves and Everton) all seem to deserve their placement. Having an xG ratio below zero indicates that their opponents are getting better opportunities for scores than their own offense. This is obviously a recipe for a lot of losses. I kind of expected Ipswitch Town to struggle this year and get relegated, but their position in the third slot is possibly because their luck factor away (their overperformance of their expected goals) is the highest in the league. This is probably not likely to continue, so if I was an Ipswitch supporter, I wouldn’t have very high expectations for their last 17 games.