The Halls of the Shadow King: The Apprentice book cover. Copyright 2025 Desdichado Books
Here’s the review I gave my own book on Goodreads. I thought anyone stumbling across this blog might find it interesting and amusing to see an author reviewing their own book! 🙂
Also, funny note. Because I did a pretty poor job on my main character’s right hand in my first book cover, someone accused me of using AI. This bothered me, so I went into GIMP (my image editing tool) and edited the line art layer to make the hands better (apparently AI still can’t do hands?). And then I fixed some other stuff that had been annoying me (too dark, didn’t like the clothes Amal was wearing, background was a bit too formal, etc.). So now the new, improved book cover is loaded here. Let me know what you think.
I really enjoyed reading this book, but maybe that’s because I also enjoyed writing it! For anyone who is considering taking the time to read it, here are a few of the things I was thinking over the last number of years that I spent writing. (of course, I’m giving it 5 stars; if I felt otherwise I’d still be writing!)
After spending several years crafting this story, I’m deeply grateful it found its way into the world—and honestly surprised by how much I enjoyed revisiting Amal’s journey as a reader rather than writer. If you’re considering this book, let me share what drove me through those long nights of research and revision.
Our culture desperately needs more characters who wield great power with genuine humility. It’s perhaps the rarest combination in literature—and life—yet through faithful effort, it remains possible. Amal represents my small attempt to show that extraordinary gifts need not corrupt when carried by someone who truly doesn’t want them and is driven by the service of others.
I also long to see readers rediscover the magic hidden in life’s unexplainable mysteries. We’ve spent decades drowning in stifling rationalism, forgetting that wonder exists in the spaces between what we know and what we can prove. Gabriel García Márquez was the master of this delicate balance—if my words can someday kindle even a fraction of the awe his prose once gave me, I’ll consider this endeavor worthwhile.
Most importantly, I hope to bring history alive in ways that point toward something higher than much contemporary literature attempts. The third century was brutal, beautiful, and utterly transformative—a time when ordinary people faced extraordinary choices that echo through our world today.
If this resonates with you, please join Amal’s journey. I’ve tried to keep the price accessible because stories should build bridges, not barriers. Stick with me, because the next two books will show how determined people, aligned with service and grace, really can change the world—one hard-fought and seemingly-impossible choice at a time.
Reading Larry McMurtry’s complete Lonesome Dove cycle—from Dead Man’s Walk through Streets of Laredo—feels like witnessing the birth and death of the American frontier through the eyes of truly unforgettable characters who refuse to leave you long after the final page.
Brilliantly Envisioned Characters
While I’d cherished Augustus McCrae and Woodrow Call for years through the original Lonesome Dove novel and its well-received television adaptation, experiencing their full arc across all four books revealed psychological depths of character development I never suspected. Call, in particular, emerges as one of literature’s most complex protagonists—a man whose apparent neurodivergence and emotional rigidity inflict profound damage on those around him, yet who finds a kind of grace in his final years through the devotion of a sweet, blind Mexican girl who becomes his unlikely salvation.
McMurtry populates this sweeping saga with characters who transcend the typical Western archetype. Famous Shoes, the Kickapoo tracker who threads through all four novels, embodies a vanished wisdom that our modern world desperately lacks—his understanding of landscape and human nature feels almost mystical. Clara Allen stands as one of American literature’s great female characters, simultaneously gracious and irascible, approaching life’s complexities with a pragmatic wisdom that makes her rejection of Gus all the more poignant and understandable.
Throughout all the books, the author’s gift for capturing authentic frontier personalities shines through his integration of historical figures like cattleman Charlie Goodnight and hunter Ben Lilly—men whose larger-than-life exploits feel both mythic and utterly believable. McMurtry’s settings pulse with life, from the unforgiving Texas plains to the brutal Mexican borderlands, creating a geography that becomes as much a character as any human protagonist.
Ranking the Four Novels in the Series
Ranking the four novels reveals an uneven achievement, and the order of composition tells its own story. Lonesome Dove remains the high-water mark, and not by accident—it was the first written, and McMurtry’s engagement with Gus and Call feels undiluted by everything that came after. The characters receive his fullest attention here; nothing feels like scaffolding for a later book.
Dead Man’s Walk, the first chronologically, is a grueling read in the best sense. The historical material is strong and competent, and the ill-fated Texas Santa Fe expedition gives McMurtry a canvas for genuine brutality—the grizzly attack in the mountains between Santa Fe and Mesilla is one of the more harrowing set pieces in the whole cycle. More importantly, this is where Buffalo Hump enters, and the enmity McMurtry establishes between the Comanche chief and the young McCrae and Call reverberates through the rest of the series in ways that feel earned rather than convenient.
Comanche Moon is the cycle’s most difficult volume to love. It meanders through the pursuit of Kicking Wolf, the horse thief whose exploits shade into something like folk magic, and the novel’s back half descends into the genuinely surreal camp of Ahumado, a Mexican-mountain despot who rules through pure terror. The book loses its way at times, and readers may find themselves losing the thread along with it. Its lasting contribution is Blue Duck—Buffalo Hump’s deranged half-Comanche son—whose menace pays off in the original Lonesome Dove and gives this otherwise unwieldy novel a reason to exist.
Streets of Laredo, written second but positioned last in the internal chronology, is the cycle’s weakest entry and the clearest evidence that McMurtry’s attempt to return to Lonesome Dove’s characters came at a cost. An aged Call is hired to track down Joey Garza, a young sniper murdering railroad men, only to discover that the psychopathic Mox-Mox is loose on the same territory, killing simply because he enjoys it. Mox-Mox is a memorably vile creation, and his end is satisfying in the way only a truly earned comeuppance can be. But the novel’s treatment of Call in its final stretch—diminishing a character we’d spent three books coming to admire—lands with the same sour note as the recent Star Wars sequels’ handling of Luke Skywalker. It’s a legacy character put through indignities that feel less like tragedy and more like a failure of nerve about what to do with him.
Struggles through the Books
Yet the series isn’t without its flaws. McMurtry occasionally stumbles over continuity between volumes, and his prose—while effective—sometimes feels workmanlike when a more lyrical voice (think Cormac McCarthy) might have elevated certain scenes to the heights that they truly deserved. The emotional undercurrents that drive some of the lesser characters occasionally surface too briefly, leaving the reader hungry for deeper exploration. Some (including me) might also indict McMurty on killing off the very best character he ever dreamed up in the first novel!
Despite these quibbles, the Lonesome Dove saga succeeds magnificently as both entertainment and (occasionally) literature. It’s a work that honors the brutal poetry of the American West while never romanticizing its violence or overlooking its moral complexities—a fitting epitaph for a vanished world and the remarkable people who shaped it.
Interested in New Western Literature?
Let me add before I close, my current series, “The Rim Country” is based off my love for Lonesome Dove and the history of Arizona’s Pleasant Valley range war. For a modern take on the western novel, check out Book One of “The Rim Country”
Understanding the economic landscape of communities across America has never been more important—or more accessible. At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we’ve developed a powerful Python tool that seamlessly combines U.S. Census Bureau demographic data with Bureau of Labor Statistics economic indicators to provide granular insights into any census tract in the United States.
The Power of Hyperlocal Economic Analysis
Example: Comparison of Unemployment levels across nearby counties. Datasource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
While national and state-level economic data gets most of the attention, the real story often lies in the neighborhood-level details. Our comprehensive analysis tool bridges the gap between broad economic trends and local community realities by integrating multiple government data sources into a single, coherent analytical framework.
What makes this tool unique?
Complete Geographic Coverage: Analyze any census tract in all 50 states using just a state abbreviation and county name
Multi-Source Integration: Seamlessly combines Census Bureau demographic data with Bureau of Labor Statistics employment metrics
Rich Visualization: Generate compelling choropleth maps that reveal economic patterns at the most granular geographic level. Also provides the opportunity to evaluate two features at the same time on the map (one using color, the other using kinds of stripes)
Economic Health Scoring: Calculate composite economic health indices that identify both high-opportunity areas and communities needing investment
Key Features and Capabilities
Comprehensive Data Integration
Our tool pulls from multiple authoritative government data sources:
U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS): Demographic characteristics, income distributions, housing costs, and population estimates
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Employment rates, unemployment trends, and labor force participation
CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI): Community resilience indicators and demographic vulnerability metrics
Advanced Economic Metrics
The system automatically calculates sophisticated economic indicators including:
Economic Health Index: A composite score weighing median income, unemployment rates, and poverty levels
Opportunity Identification: Algorithmic detection of high-growth potential census tracts
Investment Priority Areas: Data-driven identification of communities that could benefit most from targeted economic development
Professional-Grade Visualizations
Generate publication-ready maps and charts that clearly communicate complex economic relationships:
Multi-variable choropleth maps showing income distributions, housing costs, and employment patterns (see example below)
Time-series analysis of unemployment trends across multiple counties
Median Home Value and Median Rent – two feature analysis using County shapefile (datasource, US Census)Median Household Income, Santa Cruz County, AZ. (datasource, US Census)
Real-World Applications
This tool has proven invaluable for various stakeholders:
Economic Development Professionals can identify underinvestment opportunities and track the impact of development initiatives across specific geographic areas.
Policy Researchers gain access to granular data needed for evidence-based policy recommendations and impact assessments.
Community Organizations can better understand the economic challenges and opportunities within their service areas.
Business Analysts can make informed location decisions based on comprehensive local economic profiles.
Sample Analysis: Arizona Counties
In our recent analysis of Arizona counties including Pima, Maricopa, Cochise, Graham, Gila, and Pinal, we demonstrated the tool’s ability to:
Track unemployment trends across multiple counties simultaneously
Identify census tracts with the highest economic opportunity scores
Map the relationship between housing costs and median income at the neighborhood level
Analyze language accessibility challenges that might impact economic participation
The Santa Cruz River Analytics Advantage
At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we believe that high-quality government data should be accessible and actionable. Our approach to geographic economic analysis combines:
Deep Technical Expertise: Advanced data science methodologies applied to complex geographic datasets
Government Data Mastery: Extensive experience navigating and integrating federal statistical programs
Practical Applications: Tools designed for real-world decision-making rather than academic exercises
We’ve built our reputation on transforming complex government datasets into clear, actionable insights that drive better decision-making at the community level.
Getting Started
Our census tract economic analysis tool requires only basic geographic information to generate comprehensive economic profiles:
State Abbreviation (e.g., ‘AZ’ for Arizona)
County Name (e.g., ‘Santa Cruz’)
From these simple inputs, the tool automatically:
Retrieves the appropriate FIPS codes
Downloads current census tract boundary files
Pulls relevant economic and demographic data
Generates visualizations and analytical reports
Looking Forward
The intersection of government data availability and analytical capabilities continues to expand. At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we’re constantly developing new ways to extract meaningful insights from public datasets, helping communities, organizations, and businesses make data-driven decisions about economic development and resource allocation.
Whether you’re working on community development initiatives, conducting academic research, or making business location decisions, having access to comprehensive, tract-level economic data can transform your analytical capabilities.
Interested in learning more about how Santa Cruz River Analytics can help with your geographic data analysis needs? Just leave a comment below! Our team specializes in transforming complex government datasets into actionable insights for economic development, policy research, and community planning initiatives.
Where consistent growth meets predictable decline in soccer’s most balanced league
MLS Consistent Top Risers in Playing time – 2022-24MLS Consistent top decliners – 2022-24
While MLS showed remarkable balance in our league-wide analysis, the individual player stories reveal something even more fascinating: Unlike the English Premier League,MLS creates an environment where both breakthrough and decline follow predictable patterns. Here are the standout developmental trajectories from our data. This follows our broad analysis of EPL and MLS playing time minutes… what can this data point measured over time tell us?
The Development Success Stories: MLS at Its Best
Kevin O’Toole: The Textbook Breakthrough
Trend: +1,062 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
Story: From bench player (300 minutes) to full starter (2,400+ minutes). Kevin is 26 and with his first MLS team, NYCFC. He went from 3 appearances in 2022 to 30 in 2024. His consistent increase year-over-year in playing time gives an indicator that one might expect continued development.
Why it matters: Nearly perfect R² shows MLS’s ability to nurture consistent development over multiple seasons
Daniel Edelman: The Steady Climber
Trend: +765 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
Story: Methodical progression from 1,000 to 2,500 minutes. Daniel signed his first pro contract with the NYC Red Bulls at age 18. Now at 22 he has signed a “homegrown player” contract with the Red Bulls and has clearly been growing his game consistently. He may still be below the weeds, but the data would suggest that he will continue to improve and get noticed.
Why it matters: Represents MLS’s patient approach to player development—no rush, just consistent opportunity growth
Giacomo Vrioni: The Reliable Rise
Trend: +992 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.025)
Story: From role player to key contributor with near-perfect linearity. Giacomo is a Albanian player who was brought into the MLS as a Designated Player. Now with CF Montreal, in his three years with New England he went from 7 appearances to 30 and was the Revolution’s Golden Boot winner last year. He’s 27 now, so he’s probably no longer under the radar, but the playing time stats with New England show that his development is right on track.
Why it matters: Shows how MLS systems allow players to gradually earn larger roles
The 900+ Club: Diego Luna (+944), Kerwin Vargas (+910), Calvin Harris (+672)
Collective story: Multiple players experiencing similar dramatic upward trajectories
Why it matters: Demonstrates MLS’s systematic approach to developing talent—these aren’t isolated success stories. Diego Luna, for instance, started with the USL club El Paso Locomotive and at the time of his transfer, was the highest dollar-value transfer to the MLS in history. His progression from MLS Next Pro to Real Salt Lake has been consistent and he’s now seen as one of the more exciting players in MLS. He scored two goals against Guatemala in the Gold Cup for the USMNT as well.
The Predictable Declines: Even Farewells Follow Patterns
Luis Díaz: The Steepest Fall
Trend: -1,443 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.003)
Story: From starter to complete benchwarmer with mathematical precision. Luis came to the MLS from Costa Rica for about a million dollars and played for the Columbus Crew during their MLS Cup championship season. His decline may have started with an injury sustained on the Costa Rica national team, but it seems like he never was able to find his place on the Crew or any of the other MLS stops he made.
Why it matters: Perfect R² shows that even decline in MLS follows predictable patterns rather than chaotic benching
The Veteran Quartet: Marcelo Silva (-1,296), Steve Birnbaum (-1,251), Emanuel Reynoso (-1,243)
Collective story: Similar decline rates among established players. Silva is an older player (36) who peaked in 2022 in his thirties (he’s a center back, sometimes they peak late) and declined consistently until he played his way out of the MLS. This is a common trajectory.
Why it matters: Suggests MLS has consistent policies for transitioning aging players
Ben Sweat & Pablo Ruiz: The Supporting Cast Transitions
Trend: -1,202 and -1,121 minutes per year respectively
Story: Role players systematically losing opportunities
Why it matters: Even bench players have predictable career arcs in MLS
What Makes MLS Different from Premier League
Higher Statistical Reliability
MLS players show consistently higher R² values (0.995-1.000) compared to Premier League counterparts, indicating:
More predictable career trajectories
Less rotation-induced chaos
Systematic approach to player development and transition
Balanced Opportunity Structure
Unlike the Premier League’s decline-heavy environment:
Six rising players with 670+ minute gains per year
Six declining players with 1,100+ minute losses per year
Perfect balance reflecting the league’s 50/50 trend distribution
Development-Friendly Patterns
Rising players: Gradual, sustainable growth over 2-3 seasons
Declining players: Orderly transitions rather than sudden benchings
Consistency: Fewer injury-related or tactical disruptions
The Age and Stage Factor
Rising Players Profile:
Likely younger players earning their first significant opportunities
Multi-season development curves rather than sudden breakthroughs
System integration taking time but showing results
Respectful role transitions rather than dramatic benchings
The Broader Message
These individual stories confirm our league-wide analysis: MLS has created a development-friendly ecosystem where:
Young players get genuine chances to grow consistently
Veterans experience dignified transitions rather than sudden drops
Career trajectories follow logical patterns that players can plan around
Statistical reliability makes both success and decline predictable
Unlike the Premier League’s “survival of the fittest” chaos, MLS demonstrates that constrained economics can actually create better player development environments.
The Takeaway
While Premier League individual trends were notable for being rare exceptions to chaos, MLS trends represent systematic approaches to player development.
The Kevin O’Tooles and Daniel Edelmans aren’t beating impossible odds—they’re benefiting from a league structure designed to nurture talent growth. Similarly, the declining veterans aren’t victims of random rotation—they’re experiencing planned transitions.
This is what balanced opportunity looks like in practice: predictable development curves that allow players to maximize their potential within a sustainable ecosystem.
These contrasting development stories reveal why league structure matters more than prestige for individual career growth.
Individual player stories that beat the odds in soccer’s most chaotic league
While our broader analysis (LINK) showed that Premier League careers are notoriously unpredictable, some players have managed to establish clear, statistically significant trends that cut through the chaos. Here are the standout stories from our individual player analysis. Note that these have high R-squared scores and low p-values, meaning their trends are statistically significant… these trends are likely not random chance.
English Premier League top risers in playing time – 2022-24English Premier League, top Decliners in Playing Time – 2022-24
The Breakthrough Artists: Defying Premier League Odds
Lucas Digne: The Steady Climber
Trend: +540 minutes per year (R² = 0.927, p = 0.037)
Story: From around 1,200 minutes in 2022 to nearly 2,400 in 2024. All of this increase has come with Aston Villa and has been correlated with Aston Villa’s recent success.
Why it matters: In a league where most players decline, Digne has nearly doubled his playing time with remarkable consistency. He left Everton in 2022 due to a disagreement over tactics. It seems that going to Villa was a smart, smart move!
Boubakary Soumaré: The Perfect Trajectory
Trend: +534 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.005)
Story: The most statistically perfect trend in our dataset. Soumaré is another French player who started this trend at Leicester City and continued it on loan to Sevilla. He’s only 26 in 2025, so this trend could indicate future attention from a larger club (since Leicester was relegated this year).
Why it matters: His R² of 1.000 means his progression has been flawlessly linear—extraordinary in the Premier League’s chaotic environment
The Dramatic Declines: Premier League’s Harsh Reality
Scott McTominay: The Steepest Fall
Trend: -1,184 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.013)
Story: From a near-2,500 minute starter to complete benchwarmer. Much of McTominay’s decline came from Manchester United signing Casemiro as their defensive midfielder. At the end of 2024 McTominay signed with Napoli, so it should be interesting to see if his minutes increase in Serie A.
Why it matters: Shows how quickly fortunes can change… the data gives us insight into a player falling out of favor and being replaced with a stronger signing.
Michail Antonio: The Consistent Decline
Trend: -1,067 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.026)
Story: A textbook example of the aging curve in action. Antonio (35) is the leading goal scorer in the history of the West Ham club. Once he hit age 30, however, his minutes started decreasing. He hardly played at all in 2024 and has now left West Ham and is a free agent.
Why it matters: His near-perfect R² shows this isn’t injury-related chaos—it’s a systematic role reduction due to aging.
Fraser Forster: The Goalkeeper’s Dilemma
Trend: -540 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.031)
Story: From regular starter to complete backup. Forster (37) moved from Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur in 2022 and never played much afterwards.
Why it matters: Goalkeepers often have the most dramatic role changes—you’re either the #1 or you’re not. Aging can completely flip the switch on a goalie.
What Makes These Trends Special
Statistical Significance in Chaos
All these players have R² values above 0.9, meaning their trends are incredibly reliable despite the Premier League’s notorious unpredictability. This makes them statistical outliers in a league where most changes are random.
The Age Factor
Risers (Digne, Soumaré): Players who found their optimal roles or adapted to new systems
Decliners (McTominay, Antonio, Forster): Veterans experiencing natural career transitions
Perfect Linearity
Several players show R² values of 0.998-1.000, indicating perfectly linear career progressions. This is remarkable in a league where rotation, injuries, and tactical changes usually create noise.
The Takeaway
While our league-wide analysis showed that Premier League careers are largely unpredictable, these individual cases prove that significant trends can cut through the noise. The key is identifying players with:
High R² values (reliable trends)
Statistical significance (p < 0.05)
Logical explanations (age, role changes, system fit)
In a league where most players face declining opportunities, finding the rare Lucas Dignes and Boubakary Soumarés—players with statistically validated upward trajectories—represents genuine analytical gold.
These individual stories remind us that behind every data point is a human career, and sometimes those careers follow patterns clear enough to predict, even in soccer’s most unpredictable league.
Breaking down the six-panel dashboard that reveals the hidden differences between Premier League and MLS
In our previous analysis, we discovered that MLS offers more stable career opportunities than the Premier League despite being considered a “lower-tier” league. But how exactly did we reach this conclusion? Let’s walk through each visualization in our trend analysis dashboard and highlight what makes these leagues so fundamentally different.
Premier League playing time trends (2022-24) panelMLS Playing Time Trends (2022-24) Panel
The Six-Panel Story: What Each Chart Reveals
1. Distribution of Minutes Trends (Top Left)
The Foundation: Where Every Player’s Story Begins
This histogram shows how many players are gaining or losing minutes each year across the entire league. Note that these bars describe a CHANGE in playing time over the years of the study.
Premier League: Sharp peak of change in playing time around -130 minutes/year with a mean of -130.8
Most players are losing playing time consistently
The distribution is skewed left, showing more declining players than improving ones
MLS: Perfectly centered around zero with a mean change in playing time of just -4.0
Nearly balanced between players gaining and losing minutes
Much more stable environment overall
Key Insight: The Premier League actively pushes most players toward fewer minutes, while MLS maintains equilibrium. We discussed some possible reasons for (and consequences of) this in our previous post.
2. Trend Strength vs Direction (Top Middle)
The Reliability Test: Which Trends Can We Trust?
This scatter plot maps trend direction (x-axis) against statistical reliability (y-axis), with color showing average playing time. We use the metric R-squared to describe how our linear regression line “fits” the actual data. A R-squared of 1 means the regression line perfectly describes the data.
Premier League: Scattered, chaotic pattern with few high R-squared values
Most trends are statistically unreliable (low R-squared)
Even dramatic changes might just be random variation
MLS: More structured patterns with slightly higher R-squared clustering
Trends are somewhat more predictable and reliable
When changes happen, they’re more likely to be “real”
Key Insight: MLS player trajectories are more predictable, while Premier League careers are subject to more randomness. Check our previous post for fuller analysis of why this might be happening and what it might mean.
3. Playing Time vs Trend Direction (Top Right)
The Democracy Test: Do Stars Get Special Treatment?
This scatter plot reveals whether high-minute players (established stars) have different trend patterns than bench players.
Both Leagues: Remarkably similar scatter patterns between MLS and EPL.
No clear correlation between current playing time and future trends
Even established starters can see declining or increasing minutes
We do see much less variability in the “slope” of the change of playing time over 3 years for the least-used and most-used (stars) players.
Key Insight: Both leagues show “democratic” opportunity distribution—your current status doesn’t guarantee your future trajectory, but the more minutes you play, after a point, the less likely you’ll see a large change in your playing time.
4. Distribution of Trend Directions (Bottom Left)
The Balance Sheet: Winners vs Losers
Simple pie charts showing the percentage of players with increasing vs decreasing minutes.
Premier League:59.5% Decreasing vs 40.5% Increasing
Clear bias toward player decline
“Survival of the fittest” mentality
MLS:50.5% Decreasing vs 49.5% Increasing
Almost perfect balance
More “rising tide lifts all boats” approach
Key Insight: This single chart captures the fundamental philosophical difference between the leagues.
5. Statistical Significance (Bottom Middle)
The Reality Check: How Much Is Just Noise?
Bar charts showing how many trends are statistically significant versus random variation.
Premier League: ~95% non-significant trends
Most changes are just rotation chaos and random variation
Very few predictable career patterns
MLS: ~90% non-significant trends
Still mostly unpredictable, but slightly more reliable patterns
Some genuine career trajectories emerge from the noise
Key Insight: Both leagues have unpredictable elements, but Premier League chaos makes career planning nearly impossible.
6. Slope Distribution by Significance (Bottom Right)
The Magnitude Question: Are Real Trends Bigger Than Random Ones?
Box plots comparing the size of statistically significant trends versus random variation.
Premier League: Similar box sizes between significant and non-significant
Even “real” trends aren’t much larger than random fluctuations
Extreme outliers in both categories
MLS: Slightly wider “significant” box
When trends are real, they tend to be more substantial
Less extreme random variation
Key Insight: MLS rewards patience—real trends are more distinguishable from noise.
The Visual Story: What It All Means
Premier League = High-Stakes Casino
The charts paint a picture of a league where:
Most players are on declining trajectories. New, skilled players are always arriving.
Randomness dominates over predictable patterns
Career planning is nearly impossible
High rotation and pressure from younger players coming from all over the world create constant uncertainty
MLS = Balanced Ecosystem
The visualizations reveal a league where:
Players have genuine development opportunities. Pressure from skilled, new arrivals is much lower.
Trends are somewhat more reliable and predictable
Career trajectories can be planned and managed
Stability allows for longer-term thinking
Reading Between the Lines
The Economics Show Up in Every Chart
You can see the Premier League’s financial pressure in every visualization:
The negative trend distribution (constant upgrades)
The chaotic scatter patterns (rotation due to multiple competitions)
The low significance rates (panic-driven decisions)
MLS’s Constraints Create Opportunity
The salary cap and roster rules manifest as:
Balanced opportunity distribution
More reliable trend patterns
Genuine player development curves
Practical Applications
For Players: Use these charts to understand which league environment suits your career stage and goals.
For Analysts: The significance rates tell you which trends to trust for predictions.
For Fans: These patterns explain why your favorite player’s role might be more stable in MLS than you’d expect.
The Bottom Line
Six simple charts reveal a profound truth: league structure fundamentally shapes individual careers. The Premier League’s unlimited resources create chaos, while MLS’s constraints foster stability.
Sometimes the most important insights come not from complex algorithms, but from carefully visualizing the simple question: “Are players generally getting more or fewer opportunities over time?”
The answer, as these charts clearly show, depends entirely on which side of the Atlantic you’re playing.
Next up: Individual player spotlights showing which specific players are beating the odds in each league’s unique environment.
A deep dive into how league structure and economics shape player career trajectories
When we think about the differences between the English Premier League and Major League Soccer, we usually focus on the obvious: prestige, talent level, global reach. But what if I told you that the most revealing differences lie hidden in something as simple as playing time trends?
Using advanced statistical analysis of player minutes over multiple seasons, I uncovered some interesting patterns that hint at the fundamental DNA of these two leagues. The results are more fascinating—and counterintuitive—than you might expect.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: A Study in Contrasts
After analyzing thousands of players across both leagues from 2022-2024, the data tells a clear story:
Premier League: The Decline Machine
Average player loses 131 minutes per year
60% of players see decreasing playing time
Highly unpredictable rotation patterns
Indication: “Win-now” mentality dominates
MLS: The Stability Engine
Average player loses only 4 minutes per year (essentially flat)
Perfect 50/50 split between rising and declining players
More predictable career trajectories
Indication: Development-focused approach
The Opportunity Paradox: Why Less Money Means More Chances
Here’s the counterintuitive finding: MLS, despite being a “lower-tier” league, actually offers more stable career opportunities than the world’s most prestigious soccer competition.
The Premier League’s Brutal Economics
In the Premier League, money and prestige creates chaos. With transfer budgets exceeding $200 million and relegation costs around the same figure, clubs operate in constant panic mode (Man U, looking at you). The result? A “disposable player” mentality where:
Aging curves hit like a cliff – one bad season and you’re replaced.
Heavy rotation due to multiple competitions (Premier League, cups, Champions League)
Global talent influx means constant competition from new signings. There are players in lesser leagues all around the world eyeing your spot!
Managerial pressure leads to frequent tactical changes and lineup shuffles. Average tenure of an EPL manager is down to somewhere around 800 days!
All of these disruptive factors can be observed in the playing time trends across seasons
MLS’s Forced Patience
MLS’s salary cap ($5 million per team) and unique roster rules create an entirely different dynamic. Yes, there are negatives, but there are also some positives regarding player development:
Limited upgrading ability forces teams to develop existing talent
No relegation reduces panic-driven decisions and relegation-based “unloading” of players
Designated Player rule (only 3 “superstar” signings) emphasizes squad depth
Draft system creates investment in domestic player development
What This Means for Players
Premier League: High Risk, High Reward
If you can survive the craziness of Premier League rotation and competition, you’re likely exceptional. But the data shows most players experience declining opportunities over time. It’s a league that chews up talent and spits it out. Even the best players can struggle to find a fit on a high-performing EPL team.
MLS: The Developer’s Paradise
MLS offers something increasingly rare in modern soccer: time to develop. Players get longer leashes, more consistent opportunities, and genuine chances for comeback stories. MLS Next Pro is now standing up as a developmental league and the USL Academy is also ramping up development of players who might be expected to play in the USL or MLS.
The Bigger Picture: League Structure Shapes Destinies
This analysis reveals a profound truth about modern soccer: financial inequality doesn’t just affect competitive balance—it fundamentally alters how players’ careers unfold.
Some Quick Thoughts on Lessons for Different Stakeholders:
Young Players: Might be best off to consider MLS for development opportunities, even if it means lower initial prestige
Fantasy Soccer Players: Premier League minutes are nearly impossible to predict; MLS offers more reliable patterns. Perhaps this is meaningful or not, but playing fantasy at a high level means understanding what about the sport is predictable and what is not.
Talent Evaluators: Players succeeding in Premier League’s chaos demonstrate exceptional adaptability. EPL teams in general are using these kinds of analytics to evaluate upcoming players who have survived the meat grinder.
League Administrators: Salary caps and roster rules can actually improve player development environments. Not sure if the MLS cares about this as much as the rules’ influence on the bottom line, but I find it interesting.
The Statistical Deep Dive
The trend analysis used linear regression to track each player’s minutes change over time, revealing:
Statistical significance: MLS trends are more reliable and predictable
Extreme outliers: Both leagues have dramatic success/failure stories, but Premier League outliers are more likely to be noise
Career stability: MLS players can better predict their role evolution
Looking Forward: Implications for Global Soccer
As soccer becomes increasingly globalized and commercialized, these findings suggest we might need to reconsider our assumptions about league quality and player development.
The Premier League model—unlimited spending, constant roster turnover, high-pressure environment—may be great for spectacle but potentially problematic for sustainable player development.
The MLS model—constrained spending, forced player development, balanced opportunities—might offer lessons for other leagues seeking to optimize talent cultivation.
Conclusion: It’s Not Just About the Money
While the Premier League will always attract the world’s best talent through prestige and wages, this analysis shows that more money doesn’t automatically mean better opportunities for most players.
MLS, with its salary caps and development focus, has accidentally created something valuable: a league structure that gives players genuine chances to grow, adapt, and succeed over time.
In an era of increasing player burnout and shortened careers, perhaps there’s wisdom in the MLS approach. Sometimes, constraints breed opportunity.
This analysis was conducted using data from FBRef.com, followed by statistical trend analysis across multiple seasons.
Want to dive deeper? The complete dataset and visualizations reveal even more fascinating patterns about age, position, and team-specific trends that continue to challenge conventional wisdom about player development in modern soccer.
Playing Time Trend Analysis Charts for EPL from 2022-24Playing Time Trend Analysis Charts for MLS from 2022-24
The final table is now complete, and while Liverpool ran away with their second Premier League title in the modern era, the most fascinating story might be how dramatically some teams over- and under-performed their underlying metrics.
Nottingham Forest: The Great xG Overperformance
The expected points ratio has Nottingham Forest as finishing 13th, six places and 14.6 points worse off than their actual final standing. As I suspected early in the season, Forest’s remarkable 7th-place finish—securing European qualification (UEFA Euro Conference League) for the first time in decades—was built on consistently outperforming their expected goals (xG), a measure that I call “luck.”
What made Forest’s run so remarkable wasn’t just the scale of their over-performance, but its consistency. Forest’s style of play often invites pressure and opposition chances but that is by design. Unlike other teams that might show positive “luck” at home but negative away (or vice versa), Forest maintained their xG over-performance across all environments throughout most of the season.
However, as regression tends to demand, the magic eventually faded. Forest’s late-season stumble saw them narrowly miss Champions League qualification, though they still secured a European spot that seemed impossible just a few years ago.
The Salary Predictor Holds True (Mostly)
The old Premier League adage that payroll predicts performance largely held this season. Liverpool have won their crown — a second in the Premier League era and record-equaling 20th in English top-flight history, while Arsenal have pretty much second place and will return to the UEFA Champions League, where they are joined by Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Europa League winners Tottenham Hotspur.
The blue-bloods with the highest wage bills ultimately rose to claim the top spots. Manchester United, continuing their recent trend, managed to finish disappointingly low despite their substantial payroll—a perfect example of how money doesn’t guarantee efficiency.
The Magnificent Mid-Table Marvels
The most intriguing stories emerge from the middle of the table, where several clubs punched well above their financial weight. The “three Bs and two Fs”—Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham, and Forest—all achieved impressive campaigns despite relatively modest wage bills.
Bournemouth can perhaps feel the most aggrieved. Despite finishing ninth in the table, the underlying data suggests their performances were strong enough for a sixth-place finish, a position that would have secured Europa League football. This represents smart recruitment and tactical sophistication overcoming financial limitations.
What unites these overachieving clubs? None showed significant home advantage in their xG metrics, suggesting their success came from systematic tactical approaches rather than fortress-like home environments. Notably, three of these five teams demonstrated positive “luck” in away fixtures, indicating strong mentality and game management on the road.
Newcastle’s Home Fortress Phenomenon
Rankings of EPL stadiums by “Luck” at home. 2024-25 season.
The most striking individual stadium story belonged to Newcastle United. St. James’ Park emerged as the “luckiest” venue in the Premier League this season (see above), with Newcastle dramatically over-performing their xG at home while suffering equally dramatic under-performance away.
This stark home-away split suggests something unique about the Newcastle home environment—whether tactical, psychological, or atmospheric—that consistently pushed results beyond what the underlying numbers suggested they deserved. Paradoxically, this imbalance may have limited their potential; a more even distribution of their “luck” could have yielded even better results.
Crystal Palace: The Selhurst Park Puzzle
At the opposite extreme, Crystal Palace endured remarkably poor fortune at their home ground. Selhurst Park ranked as one of the unluckiest venues in the league, with Palace consistently underperforming their home xG despite their famously passionate support.
The prevailing theory suggests that the exceptional home atmosphere might paradoxically work against Palace, with players becoming overconfident or casual in front of their devoted fans. While this explanation remains speculative, the data clearly shows a venue where good chances consistently went begging. See this link from the Athletic (paywall, of course) where they discuss this very thing.
Crystal Palace (finished 12th) should have also been able to talk about a top-half finish, according to their xG data.
The Bottom Line
The 2024-25 season reinforced that while underlying metrics provide valuable insights into team performance, football’s beautiful unpredictability ensures that “luck”—positive and negative—remains a crucial factor. Forest’s European qualification, Bournemouth’s overachievement, and Newcastle’s home-field advantage all tell stories that pure statistics cannot fully capture.
As we head into the summer transfer window, the clubs that can maintain their positive variance while addressing their underlying weaknesses may find themselves best positioned for 2025-26 success.
What patterns did you notice this season? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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