Here's the daily trend map. Size of the bubbles reflects the New Active Cases in the last day and Color reflects the number of Active Cases
Tucson Monsoon Weather – Rain Prediction Status – 7/30/19
The Rain predictor has continued working well through the monsoon season. Most predictions have been a couple of hours off, though. During the last week it has predicted four rain events correctly (including the start of our 2019 Monsoon season) and has missed one (see table below in red). The Green or Red labels align with the actual time it rained at the house.
Note this is rain at my house, not just rain in the Tucson area. So that makes it a bit more challenging. For instance, on 7/30, one could see heavy rain all around the Tucson area at the times the model predicted, but it didn’t rain at my house until about 3 hrs after the last predicted time.
Tucson Weather – 7/14/19: Monsoons are Here!
Yesterday afternoon at around 4PM (at my house) our first monsoon rainstorm hit with a vengeance! Streets were flooded for a few hours and the temperatures dropped 40 degrees. My rain predictor (see below) predicted this storm 18 hours beforehand, but estimated a time about 2 hrs earlier. This means that the last two times the neural network has predicted rain at my house, it has been right.
See below for latest weekly chart and rain predictions.
Tucson Weather and Rain Forecast – 7/12/19
Noticed that my rain predictor popped up a strong prediction for about 18 hrs from now. Last time this happened (2 wks ago) it was about 2 hours off on the prediction. Here’s the week’s data plus the prediction chart.
Tucson Weather Charts – 6/26/19
Nothing interesting this week. Rain predictor is still saying zero percent chance. Very little surprise there.
Now this Rain Probability Chart looks More Believable!
See below for the weeks data and a more believable probability chart. Not sure what happened with yesterdays (It might still rain today as predicted, but I doubt it), but I’m working on it.
New Feature – Neural Network-based Rain Predictor!
One of my motivators for collecting this data is to figure out how to make predictions using it. I have been running a neural network predictor using this data for a while now with the intent that I could publish rain probability in the future. I have it about ready to show an example. Picking today because the model has made a surprising rain prediction that I don’t understand. (posted on 6/18 at 4PM…)
See graph below to see some of the prediction results. Probability of Rain is predicted for the times referenced.
More on how to design this machine learning workflow.
Tucson Weather – 6/18/2019
Tucson has steadied into its early summer weather pattern. You can see this in the monthly plot below. Lower humidity and (of course!) higher temperatures dominate.
Don’t mind the glitch in the middle, my Raspberry Pi is getting tired and sometimes konks out on me when I go on travel!
Tucson weather – Windy days! 11/15/2018
Over the last 2 days (11/13-14) we had quite a bit of wind in Tucson. These are probably the same winds that plagued California and spread wildfires over the weekend. The winds drove the humidity way down and the temperature followed. Note the large pressure spike (it went just off the scale on Monday). This gradient must have drug the winds along with it, I suppose.
I’m curious about the luminosity spike (both visual and IR) yesterday, because it wasn’t noticeably brighter than the previous few days. Will be watching to see if this is a trend. One hypothesis is that the wind knocked down some leaves from the mulberry tree that protects my porch (and therefore, the weather data collection rig).
Tucson Weather – Monsoon is behind us, Good Weather ahead! 11/12/18
Here’s an interesting view at the last month. Traditionally, Tucsonans know that Tucson weather changes quickly in the fall from summer to winter. This change is always welcomed, but it also means that Thanksgiving always sneaks up on us.
The plot below shows the drama of this changeover in the last month from higher temperatures to lower. Plus, you can see the timeperiod in the middle where the change seems to have been put into motion by a storm event (see the lightning spikes in blue). After those 6 days of cloudy and stormy weather, we have slipped into a pretty predictable pattern with no clouds and gradually decreasing temperatures. Looks like something must be happening today with the high pressure and lower temperatures, though.
