Comments on: New Blog “Tag”. Soccer Analytics. https://todnewman.com/new-blog-tag-soccer-analytics/ CATEGORIES Fri, 07 Jun 2024 22:43:21 +0000 hourly 1 By: Tod Newman https://todnewman.com/new-blog-tag-soccer-analytics/#comment-132 Thu, 08 Jun 2023 23:45:49 +0000 http://todnewman.com/?p=1373#comment-132 In reply to Moises “Coach Mo” Ramirez.

Thanks so much, Coach Mo! I really appreciate your wisdom in this area. You point out a lot of the reason why Soccer analytics have been slow to mature. The game is complex!

]]> By: Moises "Coach Mo" Ramirez https://todnewman.com/new-blog-tag-soccer-analytics/#comment-131 Wed, 07 Jun 2023 13:39:30 +0000 http://todnewman.com/?p=1373#comment-131 While a good attempt to quantify Salary/xG (Expected Goals) is a fool’s gold measurement. The
items below are directly tied to playing the game as it supposed to be played for youngest U4 to Elite
futbollers.
1. Chemistry/personnel
• While salary is a good starting place for metric collection it is a false narrative on success. Second, the isolation to only MLS does not provide a true metric collection for this. If we analyze not only MLS but expand the data mining for all leagues and all divisions, we will see a range of trends that have no correlation. Non “A” level of the pyramid does show some great improvements with money infusion. The injection of new players but also impact the whole width and breath of the club have direct results in measured success. New facilities, support personnel, training staff to include the coaching staff provides improvement over short periods of time that result in net positive gains. We can see that at the elite levels – money and salary for talented players can only have minimal effects. The richest clubs in the world – Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Liverpool and Bayern Munich don’t always provide league winners – 2023 results – Manchester City, Barcelona, Bayern Munich. The fact that soccer is not an individual sport, when the elite athletes have a very small margins of difference invalidates the salary metric. A factor that does show results but not necessarily consistent and works like a mixture of trial and error is team chemistry/personnel. A pure striker who has no mid-field conductors will have little to no chances, a holding midfielder will provide a preliminary line of defense before a back four. A midfield three or four must control tempo and chance creation is the hub of a team. The keeper working as the first attacker is advantage pushing the field ten forward. The striker success rate in the attacking third directly correlates to victories. Finding the right combination of a third can get “lucky”, two thirds can dictate the game for opportunities and complete control of all three thirds make opposing team work virtually impossible.
2. Possession
• As detailed above the combination of thirds controlling the tempo, defense, recovery, and chance creation is the out-weighing factors for success. Many cogs impact this and these options are not easily realized. Personal may not only match the mold stated above but the overall philosophy might not match the mind-set of the players chosen. So coupled with possession (other team can’t score without the ball) the mind-set of tactics is important as well.
3. Success in final 1/3
• A pure striker is hard to find. One that has 3 or 4 to 1 success rate is what is desired for success. Again, having a striker or strikers that can “finish” is not the end all. Possession to allow the midfield/defense to feed the attackers opportunities to score. This movement without the ball is little to no training for all soccer players that make the generation of events positive for the attackers and quickly returning to the attack mode – by suffocating defense to return possession to the attacking team is the start of positive play.

]]> By: Tod Newman https://todnewman.com/new-blog-tag-soccer-analytics/#comment-130 Thu, 01 Jun 2023 04:14:38 +0000 http://todnewman.com/?p=1373#comment-130 In reply to Blaine Boule.

Love the thought process Blaine! I’m interested. I’m definitely going to have some sort of way to capture xG next year on my Middle School team. I’m hoping the school’s math department will help me recruit a team manager / statistician for me to teach.

]]> By: Blaine Boule https://todnewman.com/new-blog-tag-soccer-analytics/#comment-129 Thu, 01 Jun 2023 03:48:48 +0000 http://todnewman.com/?p=1373#comment-129 As a parent with 3 kids heavily active in competitive soccer, I am quite interested in your analysis. One thought I had was regarding xG ratio. I’d guess that it’s higher in youth soccer, primarily on the basis that kids are taught to place a ball well early on and their strikes improve over time. But… the quality, size and experience of the keeper doesn’t improve at the same rate. Wonder if it would be possible to prove (or disprove) that xG is higher for younger teams and thus teams with strong strikers or one-touch bangers tend to run a score up?

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