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	Comments on: COVID-19 Update: What&#8217;s Going On in Arizona &#8211; Part 2	</title>
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		<title>
		By: Tod Newman		</title>
		<link>https://todnewman.com/covid-19-update-whats-going-on-in-arizona-part-2/#comment-62</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Tod Newman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2020 23:11:10 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[In reply to &lt;a href=&quot;https://todnewman.com/covid-19-update-whats-going-on-in-arizona-part-2/#comment-61&quot;&gt;Louisa Guise&lt;/a&gt;.

Hi Louisa, nice to hear from you.  Yes, that&#039;s the data I&#039;m using.  COVID-related ICU beds are up about 150 from the lowest number of the year (about 10% of the state&#039;s total).  Clearly a reason for concern, but a drop in the bucket compared to the number of new cases since that low point.  My observation is that the current increase in cases can be attributed to vastly increased testing because the math works out (there&#039;ve been about 350K tests conducted since 5/19 when COVID ICU bed use was around 300 -- its 452 now -- and there have been just over 20K cases recorded since that date.  The advertised positive test rate has ranged from 5 to 6.9, so if you do the math, 350K*.06 = 21K.)  This all assumes the AZDHS state numbers are accurate, which may be a stretch... they&#039;ve not been very impressive so far.  I see you listed as &quot;Dance Instructor&quot; now.  How&#039;s that going??  Lots of change for me so far due to the merger... has been fun.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In reply to <a href="https://todnewman.com/covid-19-update-whats-going-on-in-arizona-part-2/#comment-61">Louisa Guise</a>.</p>
<p>Hi Louisa, nice to hear from you.  Yes, that&#8217;s the data I&#8217;m using.  COVID-related ICU beds are up about 150 from the lowest number of the year (about 10% of the state&#8217;s total).  Clearly a reason for concern, but a drop in the bucket compared to the number of new cases since that low point.  My observation is that the current increase in cases can be attributed to vastly increased testing because the math works out (there&#8217;ve been about 350K tests conducted since 5/19 when COVID ICU bed use was around 300 &#8212; its 452 now &#8212; and there have been just over 20K cases recorded since that date.  The advertised positive test rate has ranged from 5 to 6.9, so if you do the math, 350K*.06 = 21K.)  This all assumes the AZDHS state numbers are accurate, which may be a stretch&#8230; they&#8217;ve not been very impressive so far.  I see you listed as &#8220;Dance Instructor&#8221; now.  How&#8217;s that going??  Lots of change for me so far due to the merger&#8230; has been fun.</p>
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		<title>
		By: Louisa Guise		</title>
		<link>https://todnewman.com/covid-19-update-whats-going-on-in-arizona-part-2/#comment-61</link>

		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Louisa Guise]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2020 21:22:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://todnewman.com/?p=638#comment-61</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I don’t know the source of your data.  Have you checked out the AZ dept of health services data dashboard?  
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
It definitely shows increase hospitalizations due to COVID since opening up.  And if you look at the ventilator usage and ICU beds specific to COVID it is also going up (all look somewhat exponential but I can’t claim to know that is tru).  Numbers for 65+ may not be going up as much as younger ones but what I am seeing in my anecdotal evidence is they are staying home more.  There
Also there have been numerous studies that have show that any covering worn by infected people help reduce the spread.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don’t know the source of your data.  Have you checked out the AZ dept of health services data dashboard?<br />
<a href="https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php" rel="nofollow ugc">https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php</a><br />
It definitely shows increase hospitalizations due to COVID since opening up.  And if you look at the ventilator usage and ICU beds specific to COVID it is also going up (all look somewhat exponential but I can’t claim to know that is tru).  Numbers for 65+ may not be going up as much as younger ones but what I am seeing in my anecdotal evidence is they are staying home more.  There<br />
Also there have been numerous studies that have show that any covering worn by infected people help reduce the spread.</p>
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