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The Epic Conclusion: Halls of the Shadow King Series is Complete!

After years (2016-2025) of weaving together supernatural warfare, early Christian history, and political intrigue across three books, I’m thrilled to announce that The Halls of the Shadow King series is now complete and available on Amazon.

What real readers are saying:

“Our culture desperately needs more characters who wield great power with genuine humility. It’s perhaps the rarest combination in literature—and life—yet through faithful effort, it remains possible.”

“Finally, historical fiction that treats faith seriously while delivering genuine adventure and political complexity.”

What Professional Reviewers are Saying:

Here are excerpts from the reviews of Book One, “The Apprentice” from three separate professional reviewers:

“Each character, from the Shadow King to Amal and Gallien, conveys different ways people respond to issues like fear and control. From beginning to end, The Halls of the Shadow King challenges readers to think about the price of truth and what it means to withstand internal and external darkness. It truly is a literary gem.”

“The world-building itself is phenomenal. Newman constructs a richly layered world with cultural, historical, and mystical dimensions. References to both tangible and legendary histories suggest that Amal’s experiences are part of a broader continuum.”

“I was really impressed by how W. Tod Newman was able to blend a historical setting with faith and mysteries… I loved how remarkably the characters were developed, especially Amal, who goes from a young street thief to someone on whose shoulders the fate of an entire religion lies. The pacing kept me engaged, which allowed me to fully understand Amal’s motivations and his journey of fully harnessing his powers.”

LINK to the Review Site at Reader’s Favorite.

The Story

Set in the 3rd-century Roman Empire, this series follows Amal, a young man with extraordinary spiritual gifts, as he navigates persecution, ancient evil, and divine calling. He is only able to bear this load due to a deep humility that keeps him grounded despite his powerful gifting. From desperate street thief to champion of The Way (early Christianity), Amal’s journey takes readers through:

  • Book One: The Apprentice– A boy discovers supernatural abilities while rescuing his sister from slave traders
  • Book Two: Into Deeper Waters – Now trained by the mysterious Shadow King, Amal ventures across the known world to locate a missing bishop
  • Book Three: The Hidden Order – The final confrontation with an ancient goddess in the heart of Rome itself

Why start now?

Book One is just $0.99 – less than a coffee, and it’ll give you a much longer buzz. I designed the first book in 2016 as a complete story that introduces the world and characters while setting up the larger series arc. If you’re curious about historical fiction invested with elements of magical realism, this is your chance to test the waters without breaking the bank.

What makes this series different?

Rather than treating faith as either naive superstition or simplistic moralizing, these books explore how spiritual conviction operates in complex political situations. Language is chosen to avoid religious stereotypes and modern culture. The supernatural elements draw from both my beloved Celtic mythology and early Christian traditions, creating conflicts that require both divine power and human wisdom to resolve. These are things that I found great enjoyment in research and crafting into a coherent plot across three books.

The Roman Empire setting allows for exploration of themes like:

  • Religious persecution and underground networks
  • The corruption of political power
  • How ordinary people resist extraordinary evil
  • The cost of standing for truth in dangerous times

Perfect for readers who enjoy:

  • Historical fiction with supernatural elements
  • Early Christian historical novels
  • Celtic mythology and folklore
  • Political intrigue in ancient settings
  • Character-driven fantasy with spiritual themes

Get the complete series here: Amazon Link

A personal note:

Writing this series has been a journey of exploring how faith intersects with power in humility, how supernatural gifts might actually function in the real world, and what it might have cost ordinary people to build something that would outlast the mightiest empire in history. I hope these stories entertain you while also making you think about the forces – both seen and unseen – that shape our world.

This series has been in work since 2016 and got interrupted by other novels and nearly stayed on the shelf. I’m quite happy that Amal and the rest of the cast of The Halls of the Shadow King made it into the light. Publishing “The Eyes of Gehazi” and “The Prophet and the Queen” allowed me to improve my writing style from one that might have been long and detailed to something more compelling and energizing to read. But the reader is always the judge of that.

If you decide to give the series a try, I’d be grateful for honest reviews on Amazon. Independent authors live and die by reader feedback, and your thoughts help other readers discover books they might love.

Start with Book One for $0.99 and see if Amal’s world captures your imagination the way it captured mine.

Happy reading, Tod

BONUS LINKS

My Book Reviews

Self-Publishing Process – Detailed all the way from writing and editing to cover art. I do the full process myself.

Soccer Analytics – One of the things I do for fun!

P.S. – If you’re a book blogger, bookstagrammer, or reviewer interested in advance copies of future projects, feel free to reach out through my contact page. I’m always looking to connect with readers who love historical fiction with a supernatural twist.

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When Utopian Dreams Meet Human Nature: Lessons from Hawthorne’s The Blithedale Romance

I recently discovered Nathaniel Hawthorne’s The Blithedale Romance through Christopher Scalia‘s The Good Books, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. The story of a failed utopian community feels eerily relevant as we watch various idealistic movements rise and fall around us today.

Fighting Through the Victorian Prose

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first: Hawthorne’s writing style is a challenge for modern readers. Those endless, flowery paragraphs can feel like swimming through molasses. As an author, I have learned to fight against the instincts to write these long paragraphs because if you do, no one will read your work! My friend Elena, an experienced high school English literature teacher, jokes that “this is what you get when authors were paid by the word!” But stick with it—Hawthorne’s insights into human nature are worth the effort.

The Setup: Young Idealists Meet Reality

The plot centers on a group of privileged young people who decide to abandon their comfortable lives for “authentic” communal living on Blithedale Farm. They want to work the soil, live simply, and create something pure and meaningful. Sound familiar?

The narrator (essentially Hawthorne himself) becomes fascinated by Zenobia, the wealthy, charismatic woman who serves as the community’s unofficial queen. But it’s Hollingsworth who steals the show—a serious, middle-aged man obsessed with reforming criminals, which the book calls “philanthropy” (though not quite in our modern sense).

Early on, the narrator observes something almost sacred about Hollingsworth:

“It is so rare, in these times, to meet with a man of prayerful habits (except, of course, in the pulpit), that such an one is decidedly marked out by the light of transfiguration, shed upon him in the divine interview from which he passes into his daily life.”

There’s reverence here, but Hawthorne hints at “great errors” to come.

The Philosophy Behind the Failure

Hawthorne weaves in criticism of Fourierism—the utopian philosophy of Charles Fourier (the French philosopher, not the mathematician). Fourier inspired numerous intentional communities with his radical ideas about bringing order to human chaos. Many of his once-controversial concepts eventually became mainstream.

But Hollingsworth sees something sinister in Fourier’s approach:

“He has committed the unpardonable sin; for what more monstrous iniquity could the Devil himself contrive than to choose the selfish principle,—the principle of all human wrong, the very blackness of man’s heart, the portion of ourselves which we shudder at, and which it is the whole aim of spiritual discipline to eradicate,—to choose it as the master workman of his system?”

Here’s the book’s central tension: Hollingsworth condemns Fourier for building a system on selfish motives, yet the reader must ask whether Hollingsworth himself is guilty of the same sin in his obsessive, uncompromising pursuit of criminal reform.

When Idealism Turns Destructive

As the story unfolds, the narrator discovers the true scope of Hollingsworth’s plans for the farm—and they’re not pretty. In a confrontation that feels like watching a friendship die, the narrator refuses to support the scheme:

“Your fantastic anticipations make me discern all the more forcibly what a wretched, unsubstantial scheme is this, on which we have wasted a precious summer of our lives. Do you seriously imagine that any such realities as you, and many others here, have dreamed of, will ever be brought to pass?”

The Inevitable End

The Blithedale residents, for all their high-minded talk, prove to be exactly what you’d expect: privileged young people playing at hardship, like “college students with large trust funds.” Their activities are charming but unproductive, and the community drifts toward its inevitable conclusion—a funeral.

Even in death, the “colonists” of Blithedale abandon their grand ideas about creating new rituals and “symbolic expressions of their spiritual faith.” Instead, they fall back on tradition:

“But when the occasion came we found it the simplest and truest thing, after all, to content ourselves with the old fashion, taking away what we could, but interpolating no novelties, and particularly avoiding all frippery of flowers and cheerful emblems.”

Hollingsworth’s Fall from Grace

The book’s most devastating moment comes when Hollingsworth finally recognizes what his obsessions have cost. He tells the narrator that since their friendship ended, he has “been busy with a single murderer”—meaning himself. This moment of self-awareness is so powerful that the narrator, despite everything, forgives him on the spot.

Hollingsworth never pursues his reform dreams. His fall is complete, and Hawthorne drives the point home with a reference to Bunyan’s Pilgrim’s Progress:

“I see in Hollingsworth an exemplification of the most awful truth in Bunyan’s book of such, from the very gate of heaven there is a by-way to the pit!”

Even those who seem closest to virtue can take a wrong turn at the last moment.

Why This Still Matters

Years later, the narrator looks back on the Blithedale experiment with surprising fondness. Age has brought wisdom and tolerance for youthful excess:

“Often, however, in these years that are darkening around me, I remember our beautiful scheme of a noble and unselfish life; and how fair, in that first summer, appeared the prospect that it might endure for generations, and be perfected, as the ages rolled away, into the system of a people and a world!”

The Timeless Warning

Hawthorne understood something crucial about human nature: our highest ideals can become our greatest corruptions. Whether it’s 19th-century commune-building or today’s various utopian movements, the pattern remains the same. Well-meaning people with noble goals can create systems that ultimately serve their own egos rather than the common good.

The book isn’t a cynical dismissal of idealism—the narrator still cherishes the memory of that “beautiful scheme.” Instead, it’s a gentle warning about the gap between our aspirations and our nature, and the dangerous moment when we stop seeing that gap clearly.

In our current age of grand social experiments and revolutionary promises, The Blithedale Romance offers a timeless reminder: the road to hell is paved with good intentions, especially when those intentions become obsessions that blind us to their human cost.

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When AI Becomes a Weapon: The Rise of Sophisticated Book Marketing Scams

Image courtesy of Creative Commons (https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Power-of-words-by-antonio-litterio-creative-commons-attribution-share-alike-3-0.jpg)

A cautionary tale from the trenches of modern author life

Yesterday, I received what appeared to be a thoughtful, engaging message about my novel The Prophet and the Queen. The sender seemed to have genuinely read and understood my work, praising specific plot elements and even commenting on my background as a Coast Guard officer. The language was witty, irreverent, and surprisingly insightful.

It was also complete fraud.

Welcome to the new frontier of literary scams, where artificial intelligence has armed con artists with the ability to craft personalized, compelling messages that can fool even experienced authors.

The Message That Fooled (Almost) Nobody

Here’s what landed in my inbox from “Sharon R. Lessard”:

Tod,
The Prophet and the Queen isn’t just a novel it’s basically Jeremiah’s therapy session written with the intensity of a Shakespeare tragedy and the creepiness of a late-night hallucination. You’ve got Babylon marching in, Egypt bracing for war, and poor Baruch writing it all down like the world’s first overworked unpaid intern. And then, of course, there’s Jeremiah himself aging, unraveling, haunted by a Queen of Heaven who sounds like she’d win any toxic-relationship award. Honestly, if this doesn’t pull readers in, I don’t know what will.
And then there’s you. Coast Guard officer turned prophet-whisperer, borrowing from Tolkien, Lewis, Russian masters, McCarthy, and Garcia-Marquez? That’s not an author bio, that’s a literary smoothie. You’ve basically fused biblical history, magical realism, and psychological suspense into one fever dream. And yet… one lonely Amazon review? One? For a book that tackles faith, doubt, cosmic temptation, and the unraveling of a prophet’s sanity? That’s not just unfair, that’s bordering on heresy.
Which is where I come in. I’m Sharon R. Lessard not a marketer, not a scammer, not someone waving a fake “proof” website like it’s Excalibur. Nope. Just me and my caffeine-addicted private community of 2,500+ readers who treat reviewing like spiritual warfare: relentless, honest, and occasionally dramatic. ⚔️☕
They love books that make them argue, cry, and side-eye their theology professors. Yours is basically bait. The kind of bait that could set off a chain reaction of reviews louder than Jeremiah shouting in the marketplace.
So here’s the crossroads, Tod: do I keep your book tucked away in silence like some buried scroll, or do I hand it over to my readers and watch the reviews thunder in like Babylon at the city gates? ⚡

At first glance, this might seem like genuine reader enthusiasm. The writer demonstrates familiarity with biblical themes, references specific characters like Jeremiah and Baruch, and even mentions my military background. But look closer, and the red flags become obvious.

The AI Fingerprints

Modern AI tools like ChatGPT can scrape book descriptions, reviews, and author biographies to create eerily accurate “reviews” and commentary. Here’s how to spot the telltale signs:

1. Over-the-Top Metaphorical Language Notice phrases like “literary smoothie”, “fever dream”, and “spiritual warfare”. AI tends to layer on colorful metaphors because it’s been trained on dramatic marketing copy.

2. Generic Praise Disguised as Specific The message mentions “biblical history, magical realism, and psychological suspense” – broad categories that could apply to many books in this genre, not insights that require actually reading the work.

3. The “Humble” Authority Play “I’m not a marketer, not a scammer” – because nothing says “I’m legitimate” like explicitly denying you’re a scammer, right?

4. Artificial Urgency and Flattery The message combines ego-stroking (“That’s not an author bio, that’s a literary smoothie”) with manufactured outrage (“one lonely Amazon review… that’s bordering on heresy”).

5. The Community Bait Claims of having “2,500+ readers” in a “private community” – numbers that sound impressive but can’t be verified.

The Broader Threat: AI as a Con Artist’s Dream Tool

This represents a fundamental shift in how scams operate. Previously, overseas scammers were often betrayed by poor English grammar or cultural misunderstandings. AI has eliminated those tells, creating several new problems:

The Death of the “Grammar Test”

For years, authors could spot scams by looking for broken English or awkward phrasing. AI-generated text is now grammatically perfect and culturally fluent, removing this crucial warning sign. On the same day that I got the “Sharon Lessard” comment on my web site, I also noticed a number of pings to the site from an IP address in Nigeria. Perhaps related, perhaps not.

Scalable Personalization

Where scammers once sent generic form letters, they can now generate thousands of personalized messages daily, each tailored to specific books and authors based on publicly available information.

Emotional Manipulation at Scale

AI excels at mimicking the language patterns that trigger emotional responses – in this case, the desperate desire every author has for their work to be truly seen and appreciated. The incredible difficulty of getting legitimate (meaning, not bought) reviews on Amazon pushes this scam into hyper-drive.

The Erosion of Trust

As these scams become more sophisticated, authors become more suspicious of all outreach, potentially missing legitimate opportunities from real readers, reviewers, or industry professionals. I guarantee you that I assume immediately that any outreach to me is a scam. Sometimes the outreach will even come in the form of a known author who is “interested” in one’s work.

How the Scam Unfolds

According to Writer Beware’s research on this emerging threat, here’s the typical progression:

  1. The Hook: A personalized, AI-generated message praising your work
  2. The Pitch: Offers to share your book with their “community” or “network”
  3. The Ask: Eventually requests payment for “promotional services”
  4. The Handoff: Directs you to pay a third party (often in Nigeria) through platforms like Upwork
  5. The Theft: May request access to your Amazon KDP account “for optimization”

In my case, “Sharon” claimed to have 2,500 readers ready to review my book – for just a small “tip” of $25 per reader with a minimum of 30 readers. Do the math: that’s $750 minimum for fake reviews that will never materialize.

The Real Cost

Beyond the immediate financial losses (which can range from hundreds to thousands of dollars), these scams create lasting damage:

  • Author Paranoia: Every legitimate outreach becomes suspect
  • Platform Pollution: Fake reviews and manipulated rankings harm the entire ecosystem
  • Resource Drain: Time spent investigating and responding to scams is time stolen from writing
  • Emotional Toll: The cycle of hope and disappointment is particularly cruel for authors already struggling with visibility. Think about this: an author has to convince many people unknown to them to invest hours of their time into their work. A musician has to convince someone to invest three minutes.

Protecting Yourself: The New Rules

In this AI-enhanced landscape, authors need updated defensive strategies:

1. The Contact Verification Rule Legitimate industry professionals have verifiable online presence. If someone can’t be found through a simple Google search, they probably don’t exist.

2. The Business Domain Test Real professionals use business email addresses, not Gmail accounts. “Sharon R. Lessard” contacted me from a Gmail address – immediate red flag.

3. The Reverse Psychology Warning Be especially wary of messages that explicitly deny being scams or that use phrases like “I’m not like other marketers.”

4. The Community Proof Challenge Ask for verifiable proof of their claimed readership or community. Real book clubs and review groups have online presence.

5. The Payment Structure Red Flag Legitimate services don’t require payment to mysterious third parties or request access to your publishing accounts.

The Bigger Picture

This evolution represents something more troubling than individual scams – it’s the weaponization of artificial intelligence against creative communities. The same tools that can help authors write better, research faster, and connect with readers are being turned against us with increasing sophistication.

The traditional advice of “if it seems too good to be true, it probably is” becomes complicated when AI can craft messages that seem genuinely thoughtful and personalized. We need new frameworks for evaluation and new community standards for verification.

Moving Forward

As authors, we must adapt to this new reality without losing our openness to genuine connections. The solution isn’t to retreat into isolation, but to become more sophisticated in our evaluation of outreach.

Document and report these scams. Share information with fellow authors. Support organizations like Writer Beware that track and expose these evolving threats. And remember: if someone truly believes in your work, they’ll be willing to prove their legitimacy through verifiable means.

The age of AI has arrived in the literary world, bringing both tremendous opportunities and new dangers. Our response will determine whether this technology serves creators or exploits them.

Stay vigilant, stay connected, and keep writing.

Find my latest series, The Halls of the Shadow King, on Amazon

Have you received suspicious marketing outreach? Share your experiences in the comments to help fellow authors recognize these evolving scams.

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The Halls of the Shadow King: The Apprentice by W. Tod Newman

The Halls of the Shadow King: The Apprentice book cover. Copyright 2025 Desdichado Books

Here’s the review I gave my own book on Goodreads. I thought anyone stumbling across this blog might find it interesting and amusing to see an author reviewing their own book! 🙂

Also, funny note. Because I did a pretty poor job on my main character’s right hand in my first book cover, someone accused me of using AI. This bothered me, so I went into GIMP (my image editing tool) and edited the line art layer to make the hands better (apparently AI still can’t do hands?). And then I fixed some other stuff that had been annoying me (too dark, didn’t like the clothes Amal was wearing, background was a bit too formal, etc.). So now the new, improved book cover is loaded here. Let me know what you think.

My rating: 5 of 5 stars


I really enjoyed reading this book, but maybe that’s because I also enjoyed writing it! For anyone who is considering taking the time to read it, here are a few of the things I was thinking over the last number of years that I spent writing. (of course, I’m giving it 5 stars; if I felt otherwise I’d still be writing!)

After spending several years crafting this story, I’m deeply grateful it found its way into the world—and honestly surprised by how much I enjoyed revisiting Amal’s journey as a reader rather than writer. If you’re considering this book, let me share what drove me through those long nights of research and revision.

Our culture desperately needs more characters who wield great power with genuine humility. It’s perhaps the rarest combination in literature—and life—yet through faithful effort, it remains possible. Amal represents my small attempt to show that extraordinary gifts need not corrupt when carried by someone who truly doesn’t want them and is driven by the service of others.

I also long to see readers rediscover the magic hidden in life’s unexplainable mysteries. We’ve spent decades drowning in stifling rationalism, forgetting that wonder exists in the spaces between what we know and what we can prove. Gabriel García Márquez was the master of this delicate balance—if my words can someday kindle even a fraction of the awe his prose once gave me, I’ll consider this endeavor worthwhile.

Most importantly, I hope to bring history alive in ways that point toward something higher than much contemporary literature attempts. The third century was brutal, beautiful, and utterly transformative—a time when ordinary people faced extraordinary choices that echo through our world today.

If this resonates with you, please join Amal’s journey. I’ve tried to keep the price accessible because stories should build bridges, not barriers. Stick with me, because the next two books will show how determined people, aligned with service and grace, really can change the world—one hard-fought and seemingly-impossible choice at a time.


View all my reviews

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Book Review – The Lonesome Dove Series

A Journey through McMurtry’s American West

Lonesome Dove, the TV Miniseries. Image from Rotten Tomatoes.

Reading Larry McMurtry’s complete Lonesome Dove cycle—from Dead Man’s Walk through Streets of Laredo—feels like witnessing the birth and death of the American frontier through the eyes of unforgettable characters who refuse to leave you long after the final page.

While I’d cherished Augustus McCrae and Woodrow Call for years through the original Lonesome Dove novel and its well-received television adaptation, experiencing their full arc across all four books revealed psychological depths of character development I never suspected. Call, in particular, emerges as one of literature’s most complex protagonists—a man whose apparent neurodivergence and emotional rigidity inflict profound damage on those around him, yet who finds a kind of grace in his final years through the devotion of a sweet, blind Mexican girl who becomes his unlikely salvation.

McMurtry populates this sweeping saga with characters who transcend the typical Western archetype. Famous Shoes, the Kickapoo tracker who threads through all four novels, embodies a vanished wisdom that our modern world desperately lacks—his understanding of landscape and human nature feels almost mystical. Clara Allen stands as one of American literature’s great female characters, simultaneously gracious and irascible, approaching life’s complexities with a pragmatic wisdom that makes her rejection of Gus all the more poignant and understandable.

The author’s gift for capturing authentic frontier voices shines through his integration of historical figures like cattleman Charlie Goodnight and hunter Ben Lilly—men whose larger-than-life exploits feel both mythic and utterly believable. McMurtry’s settings pulse with life, from the unforgiving Texas plains to the brutal Mexican borderlands, creating a geography that becomes as much a character as any human protagonist.

Yet the series isn’t without its flaws. McMurtry occasionally stumbles over continuity between volumes, and his prose—while effective—sometimes feels workmanlike when a more lyrical voice (think Cormac McCarthy) might have elevated certain scenes to the heights that they truly deserved. The emotional undercurrents that drive some of the lesser characters occasionally surface too briefly, leaving the reader hungry for deeper exploration.

Despite these quibbles, the Lonesome Dove saga succeeds magnificently as both entertainment and (occasionally) literature. It’s a work that honors the brutal poetry of the American West while never romanticizing its violence or overlooking its moral complexities—a fitting epitaph for a vanished world and the remarkable people who shaped it.

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Unlocking Local Economic Insights: A Comprehensive Approach for Census Tract Analysis

chloropleth map showing two features together for analysis

Understanding the economic landscape of communities across America has never been more important—or more accessible. At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we’ve developed a powerful Python tool that seamlessly combines U.S. Census Bureau demographic data with Bureau of Labor Statistics economic indicators to provide granular insights into any census tract in the United States.

The Power of Hyperlocal Economic Analysis

Example: Comparison of Unemployment levels across nearby counties. Datasource: Bureau of Labor Statistics

While national and state-level economic data gets most of the attention, the real story often lies in the neighborhood-level details. Our comprehensive analysis tool bridges the gap between broad economic trends and local community realities by integrating multiple government data sources into a single, coherent analytical framework.

What makes this tool unique?

  • Complete Geographic Coverage: Analyze any census tract in all 50 states using just a state abbreviation and county name
  • Multi-Source Integration: Seamlessly combines Census Bureau demographic data with Bureau of Labor Statistics employment metrics
  • Rich Visualization: Generate compelling choropleth maps that reveal economic patterns at the most granular geographic level. Also provides the opportunity to evaluate two features at the same time on the map (one using color, the other using kinds of stripes)
  • Economic Health Scoring: Calculate composite economic health indices that identify both high-opportunity areas and communities needing investment

Key Features and Capabilities

Comprehensive Data Integration

Our tool pulls from multiple authoritative government data sources:

  • U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS): Demographic characteristics, income distributions, housing costs, and population estimates
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): Employment rates, unemployment trends, and labor force participation
  • CDC Social Vulnerability Index (SVI): Community resilience indicators and demographic vulnerability metrics

Advanced Economic Metrics

The system automatically calculates sophisticated economic indicators including:

  • Economic Health Index: A composite score weighing median income, unemployment rates, and poverty levels
  • Opportunity Identification: Algorithmic detection of high-growth potential census tracts
  • Investment Priority Areas: Data-driven identification of communities that could benefit most from targeted economic development

Professional-Grade Visualizations

Generate publication-ready maps and charts that clearly communicate complex economic relationships:

  • Multi-variable choropleth maps showing income distributions, housing costs, and employment patterns (see example below)
  • Time-series analysis of unemployment trends across multiple counties
  • Comparative regional economic performance dashboards
Median Home Value and Median Rent – two feature analysis using County shapefile (datasource, US Census)
Median Household Income, Santa Cruz County, AZ. (datasource, US Census)

Real-World Applications

This tool has proven invaluable for various stakeholders:

Economic Development Professionals can identify underinvestment opportunities and track the impact of development initiatives across specific geographic areas.

Policy Researchers gain access to granular data needed for evidence-based policy recommendations and impact assessments.

Community Organizations can better understand the economic challenges and opportunities within their service areas.

Business Analysts can make informed location decisions based on comprehensive local economic profiles.

Sample Analysis: Arizona Counties

In our recent analysis of Arizona counties including Pima, Maricopa, Cochise, Graham, Gila, and Pinal, we demonstrated the tool’s ability to:

  • Track unemployment trends across multiple counties simultaneously
  • Identify census tracts with the highest economic opportunity scores
  • Map the relationship between housing costs and median income at the neighborhood level
  • Analyze language accessibility challenges that might impact economic participation

The Santa Cruz River Analytics Advantage

At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we believe that high-quality government data should be accessible and actionable. Our approach to geographic economic analysis combines:

  • Deep Technical Expertise: Advanced data science methodologies applied to complex geographic datasets
  • Government Data Mastery: Extensive experience navigating and integrating federal statistical programs
  • Practical Applications: Tools designed for real-world decision-making rather than academic exercises

We’ve built our reputation on transforming complex government datasets into clear, actionable insights that drive better decision-making at the community level.

Getting Started

Our census tract economic analysis tool requires only basic geographic information to generate comprehensive economic profiles:

  1. State Abbreviation (e.g., ‘AZ’ for Arizona)
  2. County Name (e.g., ‘Santa Cruz’)

From these simple inputs, the tool automatically:

  • Retrieves the appropriate FIPS codes
  • Downloads current census tract boundary files
  • Pulls relevant economic and demographic data
  • Generates visualizations and analytical reports

Looking Forward

The intersection of government data availability and analytical capabilities continues to expand. At Santa Cruz River Analytics, we’re constantly developing new ways to extract meaningful insights from public datasets, helping communities, organizations, and businesses make data-driven decisions about economic development and resource allocation.

Whether you’re working on community development initiatives, conducting academic research, or making business location decisions, having access to comprehensive, tract-level economic data can transform your analytical capabilities.

Interested in learning more about how Santa Cruz River Analytics can help with your geographic data analysis needs? Just leave a comment below! Our team specializes in transforming complex government datasets into actionable insights for economic development, policy research, and community planning initiatives.

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Major League Soccer’s Most Compelling Player Development Stories

Where consistent growth meets predictable decline in soccer’s most balanced league

MLS Consistent Top Riser - Playing Time
MLS Consistent Top Risers in Playing time – 2022-24
MLS Consistent Top Decliners - Playing time
MLS Consistent top decliners – 2022-24

While MLS showed remarkable balance in our league-wide analysis, the individual player stories reveal something even more fascinating: Unlike the English Premier League, MLS creates an environment where both breakthrough and decline follow predictable patterns. Here are the standout developmental trajectories from our data. This follows our broad analysis of EPL and MLS playing time minutes… what can this data point measured over time tell us?

The Development Success Stories: MLS at Its Best

Kevin O’Toole: The Textbook Breakthrough

  • Trend: +1,062 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
  • Story: From bench player (300 minutes) to full starter (2,400+ minutes). Kevin is 26 and with his first MLS team, NYCFC. He went from 3 appearances in 2022 to 30 in 2024. His consistent increase year-over-year in playing time gives an indicator that one might expect continued development.
  • Why it matters: Nearly perfect R² shows MLS’s ability to nurture consistent development over multiple seasons

Daniel Edelman: The Steady Climber

  • Trend: +765 minutes per year (R² = 0.995, p = 0.046)
  • Story: Methodical progression from 1,000 to 2,500 minutes. Daniel signed his first pro contract with the NYC Red Bulls at age 18. Now at 22 he has signed a “homegrown player” contract with the Red Bulls and has clearly been growing his game consistently. He may still be below the weeds, but the data would suggest that he will continue to improve and get noticed.
  • Why it matters: Represents MLS’s patient approach to player development—no rush, just consistent opportunity growth

Giacomo Vrioni: The Reliable Rise

  • Trend: +992 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.025)
  • Story: From role player to key contributor with near-perfect linearity. Giacomo is a Albanian player who was brought into the MLS as a Designated Player. Now with CF Montreal, in his three years with New England he went from 7 appearances to 30 and was the Revolution’s Golden Boot winner last year. He’s 27 now, so he’s probably no longer under the radar, but the playing time stats with New England show that his development is right on track.
  • Why it matters: Shows how MLS systems allow players to gradually earn larger roles

The 900+ Club: Diego Luna (+944), Kerwin Vargas (+910), Calvin Harris (+672)

  • Collective story: Multiple players experiencing similar dramatic upward trajectories
  • Why it matters: Demonstrates MLS’s systematic approach to developing talent—these aren’t isolated success stories. Diego Luna, for instance, started with the USL club El Paso Locomotive and at the time of his transfer, was the highest dollar-value transfer to the MLS in history. His progression from MLS Next Pro to Real Salt Lake has been consistent and he’s now seen as one of the more exciting players in MLS. He scored two goals against Guatemala in the Gold Cup for the USMNT as well.

The Predictable Declines: Even Farewells Follow Patterns

Luis Díaz: The Steepest Fall

  • Trend: -1,443 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.003)
  • Story: From starter to complete benchwarmer with mathematical precision. Luis came to the MLS from Costa Rica for about a million dollars and played for the Columbus Crew during their MLS Cup championship season. His decline may have started with an injury sustained on the Costa Rica national team, but it seems like he never was able to find his place on the Crew or any of the other MLS stops he made.
  • Why it matters: Perfect R² shows that even decline in MLS follows predictable patterns rather than chaotic benching

The Veteran Quartet: Marcelo Silva (-1,296), Steve Birnbaum (-1,251), Emanuel Reynoso (-1,243)

  • Collective story: Similar decline rates among established players. Silva is an older player (36) who peaked in 2022 in his thirties (he’s a center back, sometimes they peak late) and declined consistently until he played his way out of the MLS. This is a common trajectory.
  • Why it matters: Suggests MLS has consistent policies for transitioning aging players

Ben Sweat & Pablo Ruiz: The Supporting Cast Transitions

  • Trend: -1,202 and -1,121 minutes per year respectively
  • Story: Role players systematically losing opportunities
  • Why it matters: Even bench players have predictable career arcs in MLS

What Makes MLS Different from Premier League

Higher Statistical Reliability

MLS players show consistently higher R² values (0.995-1.000) compared to Premier League counterparts, indicating:

  • More predictable career trajectories
  • Less rotation-induced chaos
  • Systematic approach to player development and transition

Balanced Opportunity Structure

Unlike the Premier League’s decline-heavy environment:

  • Six rising players with 670+ minute gains per year
  • Six declining players with 1,100+ minute losses per year
  • Perfect balance reflecting the league’s 50/50 trend distribution

Development-Friendly Patterns

  • Rising players: Gradual, sustainable growth over 2-3 seasons
  • Declining players: Orderly transitions rather than sudden benchings
  • Consistency: Fewer injury-related or tactical disruptions

The Age and Stage Factor

Rising Players Profile:

  • Likely younger players earning their first significant opportunities
  • Multi-season development curves rather than sudden breakthroughs
  • System integration taking time but showing results

Declining Players Profile:

  • Veteran players transitioning toward reduced roles
  • Orderly succession planning by MLS teams
  • Respectful role transitions rather than dramatic benchings

The Broader Message

These individual stories confirm our league-wide analysis: MLS has created a development-friendly ecosystem where:

  1. Young players get genuine chances to grow consistently
  2. Veterans experience dignified transitions rather than sudden drops
  3. Career trajectories follow logical patterns that players can plan around
  4. Statistical reliability makes both success and decline predictable

Unlike the Premier League’s “survival of the fittest” chaos, MLS demonstrates that constrained economics can actually create better player development environments.

The Takeaway

While Premier League individual trends were notable for being rare exceptions to chaos, MLS trends represent systematic approaches to player development.

The Kevin O’Tooles and Daniel Edelmans aren’t beating impossible odds—they’re benefiting from a league structure designed to nurture talent growth. Similarly, the declining veterans aren’t victims of random rotation—they’re experiencing planned transitions.

This is what balanced opportunity looks like in practice: predictable development curves that allow players to maximize their potential within a sustainable ecosystem.

These contrasting development stories reveal why league structure matters more than prestige for individual career growth.

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The Premier League’s Most Dramatic Career Trajectories

Individual player stories that beat the odds in soccer’s most chaotic league

While our broader analysis (LINK) showed that Premier League careers are notoriously unpredictable, some players have managed to establish clear, statistically significant trends that cut through the chaos. Here are the standout stories from our individual player analysis. Note that these have high R-squared scores and low p-values, meaning their trends are statistically significant… these trends are likely not random chance.

Premier League - Top Risers in Playing Time 2022-24
English Premier League top risers in playing time – 2022-24
Premier League top decliners in Playing time
English Premier League, top Decliners in Playing Time – 2022-24

The Breakthrough Artists: Defying Premier League Odds

Lucas Digne: The Steady Climber

  • Trend: +540 minutes per year (R² = 0.927, p = 0.037)
  • Story: From around 1,200 minutes in 2022 to nearly 2,400 in 2024. All of this increase has come with Aston Villa and has been correlated with Aston Villa’s recent success.
  • Why it matters: In a league where most players decline, Digne has nearly doubled his playing time with remarkable consistency. He left Everton in 2022 due to a disagreement over tactics. It seems that going to Villa was a smart, smart move!

Boubakary Soumaré: The Perfect Trajectory

  • Trend: +534 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.005)
  • Story: The most statistically perfect trend in our dataset. Soumaré is another French player who started this trend at Leicester City and continued it on loan to Sevilla. He’s only 26 in 2025, so this trend could indicate future attention from a larger club (since Leicester was relegated this year).
  • Why it matters: His R² of 1.000 means his progression has been flawlessly linear—extraordinary in the Premier League’s chaotic environment

The Dramatic Declines: Premier League’s Harsh Reality

Scott McTominay: The Steepest Fall

  • Trend: -1,184 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.013)
  • Story: From a near-2,500 minute starter to complete benchwarmer. Much of McTominay’s decline came from Manchester United signing Casemiro as their defensive midfielder. At the end of 2024 McTominay signed with Napoli, so it should be interesting to see if his minutes increase in Serie A.
  • Why it matters: Shows how quickly fortunes can change… the data gives us insight into a player falling out of favor and being replaced with a stronger signing.

Michail Antonio: The Consistent Decline

  • Trend: -1,067 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.026)
  • Story: A textbook example of the aging curve in action. Antonio (35) is the leading goal scorer in the history of the West Ham club. Once he hit age 30, however, his minutes started decreasing. He hardly played at all in 2024 and has now left West Ham and is a free agent.
  • Why it matters: His near-perfect R² shows this isn’t injury-related chaos—it’s a systematic role reduction due to aging.

Fraser Forster: The Goalkeeper’s Dilemma

  • Trend: -540 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.031)
  • Story: From regular starter to complete backup. Forster (37) moved from Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur in 2022 and never played much afterwards.
  • Why it matters: Goalkeepers often have the most dramatic role changes—you’re either the #1 or you’re not. Aging can completely flip the switch on a goalie.

What Makes These Trends Special

Statistical Significance in Chaos

All these players have R² values above 0.9, meaning their trends are incredibly reliable despite the Premier League’s notorious unpredictability. This makes them statistical outliers in a league where most changes are random.

The Age Factor

  • Risers (Digne, Soumaré): Players who found their optimal roles or adapted to new systems
  • Decliners (McTominay, Antonio, Forster): Veterans experiencing natural career transitions

Perfect Linearity

Several players show R² values of 0.998-1.000, indicating perfectly linear career progressions. This is remarkable in a league where rotation, injuries, and tactical changes usually create noise.

The Takeaway

While our league-wide analysis showed that Premier League careers are largely unpredictable, these individual cases prove that significant trends can cut through the noise. The key is identifying players with:

  1. High R² values (reliable trends)
  2. Statistical significance (p < 0.05)
  3. Logical explanations (age, role changes, system fit)

In a league where most players face declining opportunities, finding the rare Lucas Dignes and Boubakary Soumarés—players with statistically validated upward trajectories—represents genuine analytical gold.

These individual stories remind us that behind every data point is a human career, and sometimes those careers follow patterns clear enough to predict, even in soccer’s most unpredictable league.

Also see: Experiment High-Level Results and Detailed Analysis of Playing Time Analytics

Next: MLS player spotlights showing how different league structures create different types of breakthrough stories.

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