Individual player stories that beat the odds in soccer’s most chaotic league
While our broader analysis (LINK) showed that Premier League careers are notoriously unpredictable, some players have managed to establish clear, statistically significant trends that cut through the chaos. Here are the standout stories from our individual player analysis. Note that these have high R-squared scores and low p-values, meaning their trends are statistically significant… these trends are likely not random chance.
The Breakthrough Artists: Defying Premier League Odds
Lucas Digne: The Steady Climber
- Trend: +540 minutes per year (R² = 0.927, p = 0.037)
- Story: From around 1,200 minutes in 2022 to nearly 2,400 in 2024. All of this increase has come with Aston Villa and has been correlated with Aston Villa’s recent success.
- Why it matters: In a league where most players decline, Digne has nearly doubled his playing time with remarkable consistency. He left Everton in 2022 due to a disagreement over tactics. It seems that going to Villa was a smart, smart move!
Boubakary Soumaré: The Perfect Trajectory
- Trend: +534 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.005)
- Story: The most statistically perfect trend in our dataset. Soumaré is another French player who started this trend at Leicester City and continued it on loan to Sevilla. He’s only 26 in 2025, so this trend could indicate future attention from a larger club (since Leicester was relegated this year).
- Why it matters: His R² of 1.000 means his progression has been flawlessly linear—extraordinary in the Premier League’s chaotic environment
The Dramatic Declines: Premier League’s Harsh Reality
Scott McTominay: The Steepest Fall
- Trend: -1,184 minutes per year (R² = 1.000, p = 0.013)
- Story: From a near-2,500 minute starter to complete benchwarmer. Much of McTominay’s decline came from Manchester United signing Casemiro as their defensive midfielder. At the end of 2024 McTominay signed with Napoli, so it should be interesting to see if his minutes increase in Serie A.
- Why it matters: Shows how quickly fortunes can change… the data gives us insight into a player falling out of favor and being replaced with a stronger signing.
Michail Antonio: The Consistent Decline
- Trend: -1,067 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.026)
- Story: A textbook example of the aging curve in action. Antonio (35) is the leading goal scorer in the history of the West Ham club. Once he hit age 30, however, his minutes started decreasing. He hardly played at all in 2024 and has now left West Ham and is a free agent.
- Why it matters: His near-perfect R² shows this isn’t injury-related chaos—it’s a systematic role reduction due to aging.
Fraser Forster: The Goalkeeper’s Dilemma
- Trend: -540 minutes per year (R² = 0.998, p = 0.031)
- Story: From regular starter to complete backup. Forster (37) moved from Southampton to Tottenham Hotspur in 2022 and never played much afterwards.
- Why it matters: Goalkeepers often have the most dramatic role changes—you’re either the #1 or you’re not. Aging can completely flip the switch on a goalie.
What Makes These Trends Special
Statistical Significance in Chaos
All these players have R² values above 0.9, meaning their trends are incredibly reliable despite the Premier League’s notorious unpredictability. This makes them statistical outliers in a league where most changes are random.
The Age Factor
- Risers (Digne, Soumaré): Players who found their optimal roles or adapted to new systems
- Decliners (McTominay, Antonio, Forster): Veterans experiencing natural career transitions
Perfect Linearity
Several players show R² values of 0.998-1.000, indicating perfectly linear career progressions. This is remarkable in a league where rotation, injuries, and tactical changes usually create noise.
The Takeaway
While our league-wide analysis showed that Premier League careers are largely unpredictable, these individual cases prove that significant trends can cut through the noise. The key is identifying players with:
- High R² values (reliable trends)
- Statistical significance (p < 0.05)
- Logical explanations (age, role changes, system fit)
In a league where most players face declining opportunities, finding the rare Lucas Dignes and Boubakary Soumarés—players with statistically validated upward trajectories—represents genuine analytical gold.
These individual stories remind us that behind every data point is a human career, and sometimes those careers follow patterns clear enough to predict, even in soccer’s most unpredictable league.
Also see: Experiment High-Level Results and Detailed Analysis of Playing Time Analytics
Next: MLS player spotlights showing how different league structures create different types of breakthrough stories.
Blog Posts in the Playing Time Analytics Series:
- Initial Takeaways from the Playing Time study
- Explanation of the Trends Analytics Panel
- Overview of English Premier League Risers and Fallers (this entry)
- Overview of MLS Risers and Fallers