Trends in the EPL are very intriguing as the season comes to a close. We’ve seen Liverpool and Arsenal dominate throughout the year, but now there are some clubs peaking and charging up the table. Let’s look at our standard xG/Luck charts and see what’s there.
Below is the chart from January 2025 for comparison.
Premier League European Race: What Trends do We See between January and May?
Nottingham Forest: Sliding Down the Table
- Nottingham Forest’s European dreams appear to be fading as their xG (expected goals) ratio has declined significantly from 1.15 in January to approximately 0.85 now. This substantial drop coincides with their fall from third to sixth in the table.
- While they continue to overperform their expected goals both at home and away (positive “Luck” metrics), the underlying expectations have decreased. Unless they can reverse this xG trend quickly, European football likely remains out of reach.
Chelsea: The Dark Horse Rising
- Chelsea’s strong underlying metrics are finally translating to results. Their consistently high xG ratio suggested better performances were coming, and now with improved home “Luck” metrics, they’re climbing the table. Their recent victory over Liverpool demonstrates they’re serious contenders for European qualification.
Bournemouth: Excellence Without Reward
- Despite maintaining an impressive xG ratio throughout the season, Bournemouth has slipped behind Aston Villa in the standings. Villa’s strategic additions (including Marcus Rashford) and Champions League experience may have given them the edge, likely leaving Bournemouth just short of European competition despite their excellent campaign.
Manchester City: Champions’ Resilience
- Even without star striker Erling Haaland, Manchester City has shown remarkable resilience. After dropping points earlier, they’ve steadily climbed back up the table. With a favorable remaining schedule against weaker opposition, their Champions League qualification looks increasingly secure.
Europa Cup Twist
- The upcoming Tottenham Hotspur vs. Manchester United Europa Cup final adds another layer of intrigue to the qualification race. The winner will secure an automatic Champions League berth, potentially affecting qualification opportunities for teams between them and the top six.
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