The final table is now complete, and while Liverpool ran away with their second Premier League title in the modern era, the most fascinating story might be how dramatically some teams over- and under-performed their underlying metrics.
Nottingham Forest: The Great xG Overperformance
The expected points ratio has Nottingham Forest as finishing 13th, six places and 14.6 points worse off than their actual final standing. As I suspected early in the season, Forest’s remarkable 7th-place finish—securing European qualification (UEFA Euro Conference League) for the first time in decades—was built on consistently outperforming their expected goals (xG), a measure that I call “luck.”
What made Forest’s run so remarkable wasn’t just the scale of their over-performance, but its consistency. Forest’s style of play often invites pressure and opposition chances but that is by design. Unlike other teams that might show positive “luck” at home but negative away (or vice versa), Forest maintained their xG over-performance across all environments throughout most of the season.
However, as regression tends to demand, the magic eventually faded. Forest’s late-season stumble saw them narrowly miss Champions League qualification, though they still secured a European spot that seemed impossible just a few years ago.
The Salary Predictor Holds True (Mostly)
The old Premier League adage that payroll predicts performance largely held this season. Liverpool have won their crown — a second in the Premier League era and record-equaling 20th in English top-flight history, while Arsenal have pretty much second place and will return to the UEFA Champions League, where they are joined by Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Europa League winners Tottenham Hotspur.
The blue-bloods with the highest wage bills ultimately rose to claim the top spots. Manchester United, continuing their recent trend, managed to finish disappointingly low despite their substantial payroll—a perfect example of how money doesn’t guarantee efficiency.
The Magnificent Mid-Table Marvels
The most intriguing stories emerge from the middle of the table, where several clubs punched well above their financial weight. The “three Bs and two Fs”—Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham, and Forest—all achieved impressive campaigns despite relatively modest wage bills.
Bournemouth can perhaps feel the most aggrieved. Despite finishing ninth in the table, the underlying data suggests their performances were strong enough for a sixth-place finish, a position that would have secured Europa League football. This represents smart recruitment and tactical sophistication overcoming financial limitations.
What unites these overachieving clubs? None showed significant home advantage in their xG metrics, suggesting their success came from systematic tactical approaches rather than fortress-like home environments. Notably, three of these five teams demonstrated positive “luck” in away fixtures, indicating strong mentality and game management on the road.
Newcastle’s Home Fortress Phenomenon
The most striking individual stadium story belonged to Newcastle United. St. James’ Park emerged as the “luckiest” venue in the Premier League this season (see above), with Newcastle dramatically over-performing their xG at home while suffering equally dramatic under-performance away.
This stark home-away split suggests something unique about the Newcastle home environment—whether tactical, psychological, or atmospheric—that consistently pushed results beyond what the underlying numbers suggested they deserved. Paradoxically, this imbalance may have limited their potential; a more even distribution of their “luck” could have yielded even better results.
Crystal Palace: The Selhurst Park Puzzle
At the opposite extreme, Crystal Palace endured remarkably poor fortune at their home ground. Selhurst Park ranked as one of the unluckiest venues in the league, with Palace consistently underperforming their home xG despite their famously passionate support.
The prevailing theory suggests that the exceptional home atmosphere might paradoxically work against Palace, with players becoming overconfident or casual in front of their devoted fans. While this explanation remains speculative, the data clearly shows a venue where good chances consistently went begging. See this link from the Athletic (paywall, of course) where they discuss this very thing.
Crystal Palace (finished 12th) should have also been able to talk about a top-half finish, according to their xG data.
The Bottom Line
The 2024-25 season reinforced that while underlying metrics provide valuable insights into team performance, football’s beautiful unpredictability ensures that “luck”—positive and negative—remains a crucial factor. Forest’s European qualification, Bournemouth’s overachievement, and Newcastle’s home-field advantage all tell stories that pure statistics cannot fully capture.
As we head into the summer transfer window, the clubs that can maintain their positive variance while addressing their underlying weaknesses may find themselves best positioned for 2025-26 success.
What patterns did you notice this season? Share your thoughts in the comments below.
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